Lindholm Company Blog

This is another post that looks both at the year in review and at the coming year.

There is an interesting pattern across the past three mayors: Ruth Bascom (1993-7), Jim Torrey (1997-2005), and Kitty Piercy (2005-present). Under Bascom the library lost narrowly … very narrowly. Under Torrey the library won in landslides … every win by more than double digits. Under Piercy the library won … but only narrowly. Both wins were solid, but not overwhelming by any stretch of the imagination.

Sources: Eugene Election History – 1896 to present; Lane County Elections.

Measures Included:
May 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library, emergency equipment, facility repair – $56,207,287.
Nov. 1994: General Obligation Bonds for new library – $26,134,808
Nov. 1998: Four-Year Library Operations Serial Levy. $2,190,000 per year
May 2002: Four-Year Library Local Option Tax
May 2006: Four-Year Local Option Property Tax Levy for Library Operations. $2,687,500 per year for 4 years
May 2015: Five-Year Local Option Levy

The library levy index exceeds the previous average index most in wards 1 and 3 – which were also its best performing wards. The biggest relative drop off occurred in Ward 5.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

Methodology: Index = 100*(Ward %)/(Citywide %)

Note that the citywide index is always = 100.

The last three measures were the May 2015 Lane Vehicle Registration Fee, the May 2013 Lane Jail Levy, and the May 2013 Eugene City Fee.

This compares turnout in recent special elections in Eugene and Springfield. Each city’s voters faced at least one money measure on the ballot during each election.

Several observations stand out: 1. Eugene’s turnout exceeded Springfield’s in every election – sometimes by a lot! 2. Springfield’s turnout has been more stable. 3. Contrary to some reports, this past November’s turnout was not especially low for a special election with money measures.

Money measures by election by relevent jurisdiction:
May 2013: Lane and Eugene
May 2015: Lane
Nov. 2015: Eugene and Springfield

In general money measures drive turnout in special elections. All else equal, the turnout roughly doubles.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

The purpose of an index is to provide a standard to compare relative performance. As a rule of thumb, an index above 125 is high or an index below 80 is low. By that standard wards 1 and 3 were significantly above average and ward 6 was significantly below average.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

Methodology: Index = 100*(Ward %)/(Citywide %)

Note that the citywide index is always = 100.

Though both measures won in three wards and lost in five, the library levy did better than the vehicle registration fee in every ward. The results very roughly parallel one another.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

This graphic shows the relative difference of support for libraries and for jails. The jail levy did better than the library levy in six out of eight wards: All the northern and western wards plus Betty Taylor’s Ward 2 (though it was nearly a tie there). The Jail levy led the library levy by double digits in four wards.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

The library levy did far better, double digits better, than the 2013 city fee in every single ward. The gap was most pronounced in South Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

The precinct-level election returns data for the Eugene Library Levy are just out. The levy won big in the three South Eugene wards and lost in the other five wards in the city. That created the margin of victory.

This does not tell the whole story. First, the library levy failed overwhelmingly in Bethel despite the branch library. This was probably not so much a rejection of the library as a rejection of city hall. Bethel has consistently rejected city measures, and taxes, for a while.

Second, the levy was reasonably close in the other four northern and western wards. This bodes well for the library. Finally, the abnormally high yes margins, even for South Eugene, in wards 1 (Brown) and 3 (Zelenka) were critical to victory.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Geographic Orientation:
South Eugene = Wards 1, 2, and 3.
North Eugene = Wards 4 and 5.
West Eugene = Wards 6, 7, and 8.
For a map of council districts: http://eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=2636

This chart presents the Eugene citywide yes percentage for the five most recent money measures.

First, old fashioned property tax measures do best. The Lane Jail Levy and Eugene Library did best.

Second, turnout is not everything. Message matters. The wide spread between Lane County’s Jail Levy and Eugene’s City Fee despite being on the same ballot and having the same voters is clear evidence.

Finally, the county isn’t doing that badly in Eugene. Despite being creamed countywide, Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee did not do very badly in Eugene and did a lot better than either the City Fee or the City Income Tax.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Mayor Piercy’s job performance rating declined during the library campaign. Earlier posts have pointed out how important the mayor’s standing is for measures. These include: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9415 and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12379. This implies that her ratings decline during the campaign hurt the support for the library measure. The library’s win supports the notion of a comeback during the final week.

It is not clear why this decline occurred, but it also happened in the 2013 fee campaign (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9267). However, that measure, unlike the library, lost in a landslide.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.