Lindholm Company Blog

The undervote, as expected, was highest in the university precinct. However, it was relatively higher in north and west Eugene as well.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: eugene-mayor-undervote-may-2016.

Clark did much better in north and west Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: clark-vote-pct-may-2016.

Vinis’ strongest area was in south-central Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-vote-pct-may-2016

This map has the familiar pattern of previous mayoral contests. North and west Eugene largely voted for Clark and south Eugene largely voted for Vinis.

The difference is one of degree and of inroads. North and west Eugene were not as supportive and Vinis won several north and west precincts. Compare the 2008 mayoral race: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3482.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

For a more detailed map: vinis-v-clark-difference-may-2016

Starting Thursday and continuing on that day will be a weekly series of posts will examine the 2016 Eugene Mayoral race.

As with Mike Clark, political party was the top determinant of favorability towards Vinis. As one would also expect, given that Vinis was practically unknown at the beginning of the campaign (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13040), her name familiarity steadily increased among all groups with her net favorability rocketing among Democrats.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

The primary driver of support for Mike Clark was a person’s political party. After that, Democrats split up between those from South Eugene and those from the rest of Eugene. Among South Eugene Democrats, Age was the key factor with persons 60 and under being strongly negative. Among the latter, they got to know Clark better, but didn’t much like what they learned. This group was a key part of the business coalition in past years and the loss of this group explains some of the Clark campaign’s troubles.

The Clark trend is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

In contrast to Mike Clark’s name familiarity trend (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=13038), Lucy Vinis’ steadily improved. Her favorables and net favorables increased in every poll. By a couple weeks out her favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was a very healthy three-and-a-half-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Mike Clark’s net favorability (favorables minus unfavorables) never broke into double digits. A typical campaign goal is two-to-one. At one point Clark was nearly one-to-one.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
Mike Clark

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Vinis gained consistently during the campaign. Clark never seemed to gain ground. This differences appears to have been a key driver in the final result.

QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______ IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
RANDOMIZE ORDER
1. Mike Clark
2. Lucy Vinis

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.