Lindholm Company Blog

Those with incomes of $50,000 or more and non-whites with lower incomes most approve.  Non-major-party white voters with incomes under $50,000 least approve.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

The split on approve of the 49er’s move looks a bit like 49er’s fans and non-fans. Upper income homeowners approve most. Approval from all other demographics is significantly lower.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

Countywide familiarity with the proposed 49er’s move to the City of Santa Clara remains high and not declining. This familiarity remains above that of the proposed A’s move to San Jose.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

Countywide approval for the 49er’s move to the City of Santa Clara continues to be at elevated levels from where it was in June 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The surveys each consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of Santa Clara County likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009, October 26-28, 2009, and February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

This is interesting. Lower income, below $30,000, and upper income, above $75,000, are the most likely to support the stadium plan. Middle-income voters, $30,000 to $75,000, were more likely to be opposed. It is possible that this has something to do with the likely property value increase, vs. the tax encumbrances, that the stadium would bring.

Question:
Shall the City of Santa Clara adopt Ordinance 17.20 leasing City property for a professional football stadium and other events; no use of City General or Enterprise funds for construction; no new taxes for residents for stadium; Redevelopment Agency funds capped for construction; private party pays all construction cost overruns; no City/Agency obligation for stadium operating/maintenance; private party payment of projected fair market rent; and additional funds for senior/youth/library/recreation to City’s General Fund?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of Santa Clara likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted February 15-16, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic using demographic data about the survey respondents.

For a larger version of this map, please see: 49ers-by-city-of-santa-clara-zip

The greatest support for the measure is among those who live in the northern part of the City of Santa Clara. They would live nearest the proposed stadium.

 The overwhelming percentage of voters in the City of Santa Clara live in only three ZIP codes.

Question:
Shall the City of Santa Clara adopt Ordinance 17.20 leasing City property for a professional football stadium and other events; no use of City General or Enterprise funds for construction; no new taxes for residents for stadium; Redevelopment Agency funds capped for construction; private party pays all construction cost overruns; no City/Agency obligation for stadium operating/maintenance; private party payment of projected fair market rent; and additional funds for senior/youth/library/recreation to City’s General Fund?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of Santa Clara likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted February 15-16, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

The upcoming 49er’s stadium ballot measure on the City of Santa Clara ballot starts off in a head heat: 45% yes and 45% no.

The ballot question was the first question in the survey.

Question:
Shall the City of Santa Clara adopt Ordinance 17.20 leasing City property for a professional football stadium and other events; no use of City General or Enterprise funds for construction; no new taxes for residents for stadium; Redevelopment Agency funds capped for construction; private party pays all construction cost overruns; no City/Agency obligation for stadium operating/maintenance; private party payment of projected fair market rent; and additional funds for senior/youth/library/recreation to City’s General Fund?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
The survey consisted of 200 live telephone interviews of City of Santa Clara likely June 2010 Primary voters conducted February 15-16, 2010. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent for each of the surveys. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

Source of ballot question wording: City of Santa Clara.

The approval rate increased significantaly between June and October 2009. The increase was general and no single segment drove the increase. In additiona, approval rates do not vary greatly across demographic groups.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1514

Familiarity remained constant between the June and October 2009 surveys. The most familiar group are those aged 18 to 59.

METHODOLOGY
The data were analyzed using CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology.

The data from the two surveys were pooled

The data come from two surveys, each of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Santa Clara County Primary voters were conducted first on June 16-18, 2009 and then, second, on October 26-28, 2009.

Question:
How familiar are you with moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? Is that very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar or very unfamiliar?

The trend top lines are posted here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1505

Approval for the 49er’s to move to Santa Clara has increased signficantly over time. The improvement is probably due to the elimination of doubts.

Question:
Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Santa Clara County June 2010 Primary voters conducted October 26-28, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.
The earlier survey was conducted June 16-18, 2009 using the same methodology.