Lindholm Company Blog

Voters treated measure Measure 78 largely like Measure 77. They learned over time. Here, again, the date of the poll is the most important determinant of voter intention.

QUESTION
If the election were held today on Measure #78 Amends Constitution: Changes constitutional language describing governmental system of separation of powers; makes grammatical and spelling changes, would you vote yes or no?

METHODOLOGY
This pooled survey analysis is composed of six surveys and a total of 1400 interviews.

The tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live  telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likely Oregon General  Election voters.

The segmentation trees were constructed using a standard CHAID analysis.

As is common with “housekeeping” measures, the date of the tracking poll is the most important driver of support in Oregon. People learn over time.

QUESTION
If the election were held today on Measure #77 Amends Constitution: Governor may declare “catastrophic disaster” (defined); requires legislative session; authorizes suspending specified constitutional spending restrictions, would you vote yes or no?

METHODOLOGY
This pooled survey analysis is composed of six surveys and a total of 1400 interviews.

The tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live  telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likely Oregon General  Election voters.

The segmentation trees were constructed using a standard CHAID analysis.

As in the State Treasurer contest, there was a clear convergence in late September. This was followed by Rosenblum pulling away from Buchal. This is another example of a low-information contest since most of Rosenblum’s expenditures were in the May Primary.

It should be noted that Buchal was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The trend for the State Treasurer race differs from the Presidential and Secretary of State. Here there was a convergence in late September. After that, Wheeler pulled away. Here is an example of a low information contest. Wheeler, to date, had the lowest election expenditures of any of the three Democrats running statewide.

It should be noted that Cox was a write-in nominee in the Republican Primary and spent little money.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

The Secretary of State trend tracks with the Presidential trend. The two candidates converged during the first half of October. After that, the undecideds sorted themselves and Brown won by a solid margin.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

This trend analysis shows both the consistent Obama advantage throughout the campaign and the national Romney bump at the beginning of October due to the debate carried through to Oregon.

METHODOLOGY
The data come from five surveys composed of 200 live telephone interviews each conducted  September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error on each survey is plus or minus 7 percent. Quotas were established to guarantee a representative sample of likelyOregon General Election voters.

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 fundraising levels with comparable contests in recent years.

The two 2008 races did better than Buehler did this year. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

The expenditure totals are as of November 16, 2012.

These results fit the pattern. The two 2008 races were for open seats. Dancer placed ahead of Alley because he is from Eugene.

This corresponding vote percentages are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8548

In 2012, the only partisan statewide contests Oregonians had to vote on were the down ballot constitutional offices: Attorney General, Secretary of State, and State Treasurer.  This post will compare the 2012 results with comparable contests in recent years.

The red line is for the Republican percentage. The blue line is the Democratic percentage. This is the two-party vote. Third parties votes are not counted in order to make the results more easily comparable.

What’s most interesting is that the best result for Republicans was Rick Dancer running for Secretary of State in 2008. This was despite the fact that the 2008 election was the best Democratic wave among the three years.

This result fits with the traditional Eugene Republican advantage: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8505

Another related point is that Dancer did relatively poorly in the Portland Metro Area: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=719. He more than made up for it in Lane County: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=299

This post presents a perceptual map comparing the Secretary of State vote and the Labor Commissioner vote.

There is now an advertisement attacking both of them jointly. This perceptual map implies that there is some difference between the two candidates.

These differences come both from that there is a much higher undecided vote in the Labor Commissioner race and because Starr is drawing a relatively less partisan typical voter than Buehler is.

Avakian’s point is on a nearly direct line from the “bulls-eye” origin as Brown is. However, his point is further out. This implies that Avakian is drawing on Brown voters only getting fewer of them.

QUESTIONS
1. If the election  for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote forBruce Alexander Knight, Libertarian Party, Kate Brown, Democrat and Working Families parties, Knute Buehler, Republican and Independent parties, Seth Woolley, Pacific Green Party, or Robert Wolfe, Progressive Party?

2. If the election  for Labor Commissioner were held today, would you vote for Bruce Starr or Brad Avakian?
IF STARR/AVAKIAN: Is that Strongly or Somewhat?

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.

This post presents a perceptual map looking at the relationship between Measure 84 and Measure 85.

The correspondence between the “Yes” votes for one and the “No” votes for the other is striking. Voters see them as mirror images of one another.

QUESTIONS
Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on ________________, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
1. Measure #84 Phases out existing inheritance taxes on large estates, and all taxes on intra-family property transfers
2. Measure #85 Amends Constitution: Allocates Corporate Income/Excise Tax “Kicker” Refund To Additionally Fund K Through 12 Public Education

METHODOLOGY
This tracking survey series is comprised of five statewide Oregon surveys of 200 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon General Election voters conducted each of September 17-18, October 1-2, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

The graphic is constructed based on a Correspondence Analysis.