Posts tagged ‘Eugene May 2011 Election’

Retrospective: May 2011 Eugene Oregon Income Tax Support Trend

This post looks back at Eugene’s May 2011 school income tax measure. This polling makes it clear that the income tax was always pretty far from passage. The “yes” percentage never passed 43 percent.

QUESTION
Measure 20-182. Temporary City Income Tax for Schools. Should the City impose a personal income tax on Eugene residents for four years to support local schools?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
All surveys consist of 200 telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene May 2011 Special Election voters. The margin of error at the overall sample median is plus or minus 7 percent. The surveys were conducted April 18-19, April 25-26, May 2-3, and May 9-10, 2011. Quotas were established on gender, age, party, region, and vote history in order to establish a representative sample.

 

Eugene 4J School Bond: Map of May 2011 Results

The Eugene 4J School Bond passed overwhelmingly.

May 2011 Special 20-183 Yes 060211-1415

The strongest opposition to the Eugene 4J School Bond came from rural areas. The basic pattern of the strongest support coming from south Eugene and the strongest opposition coming from the rural portion of the district has been true for more than 30 years.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Eugene Income Tax: Map of May 2011 Results

The Eugene Income Tax failed overwhelmingly. The Eugene Income Tax (Measure 20-182) did best in central and south Eugene. The most consistent opposition came from north and west Eugene.

May 2011 Special 20-182 Yes 060211-1445

This pattern generally mimics the geographic pattern for the Eugene Mayoral election in 2008: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3482 The difference is the lack of overwhelming support in the south hills.

The geographic voting pattern is starting to resemble the old “Conservative C” that formed behind Jeff Miller for Mayor in 1988. Since the income tax was a measure and not a candidate, any conclusions about future candidate contests at this stage are certainly tentative. Nevertheless, if this pattern continues in future elections, it would be a significant shift in Eugene politics.

Source of data: Lane County Elections