Posts tagged ‘Eugene Polling’

Approve or Disapprove of How New City Hall Project Handled

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Eugeneans pretty clearly disapprove of how the new city hall project has been handled. One question: How will this mismanagement belief affect future voter support for city efforts?

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of how the project to build the new Eugene City Hall has been handled?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Is Eugene’s New City Hall Project Going in the Right Direction or Off on the Wrong Track?

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It’s pretty clear that Eugeneans think the city hall project is off on the wrong track.

QUESTION: Do you feel the project to build the new Eugene City Hall is moving in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Where to Build Eugene’s New City Hall?

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Eugeneans now overwhelmingly prefer the EWEB site for the new city hall.

Councilor Mike Clark originally proposed this in what now seems like eons ago. However, it seems took the perception of gross mismanagement to really sell the site.

QUESTION: Three sites have been widely discussed for the new city hall:
build at the current city hall site east of the county building,
build at the current “butterfly parking lot site west of the county building, or
renovate the current EWEB headquarters building.
Which do you prefer?

METHODOLOGY: 240 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters were conducted November 29 through December 1, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 6%.

Piercy Approval Trend During Library Campaign

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Mayor Piercy’s job performance rating declined during the library campaign. Earlier posts have pointed out how important the mayor’s standing is for measures. These include: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9415 and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=12379. This implies that her ratings decline during the campaign hurt the support for the library measure. The library’s win supports the notion of a comeback during the final week.

It is not clear why this decline occurred, but it also happened in the 2013 fee campaign (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9267). However, that measure, unlike the library, lost in a landslide.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Correspondence Between Library Support and Piercy Approval

This post is motivated by the early study of measures under Eugene mayors Kitty Piercy and Jim Torrey. The question is: how correlated was approval of Kitty Piercy with support for the library measure.

The answer is: a lot!

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This graphic shows the correspondence between support for the library measure and approval of Mayor Kitty Piercy in the first tracking poll – just before the ballots were mailed.

There was a very high correspondence. The distance between the “Don’t Knows” in part is due to their small number and the difference between uncertainty about the mayor and indecision about the measure.

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This graphic provides a detailed picture of all question options. Those rating the mayor excellent are also those most in favor of the measure. Similarly, those rating her good or unsure are also yes voters.

Interestingly, those rating her fair are close to the four neighboring responses: somewhat yes, don’t know, lean no, and somewhat no. This implies that these four responses are all, to some extent, similar. Past analyses have indicated that “Lean Yes” responses on measures are those most likely to swing no over time.

Following up on these observations the next is natural: those rating the mayor poor are correlated with those who are strongly no.

QUESTIONS: 1. Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

2. How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

The technique of correspondence analysis was applied to the data. It is a form of visual cross tabulation (sometime called internals). The distance between points essentially measures their correlation.

“Approval” includes “Excellent” and “Good” responses. “Disapproval” includes “Fair” and “Poor” responses. Past analyses indicate this is a good measure of relative support.

 

Eugene Library Measure Key Demographics

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Support for and opposition to the library measure divided most strongly on partisan lines. The level of support from Democrats did not match the opposition from Republicans.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Library Measure Expected Yes Pct. Trend

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This post tracks the expected yes percentage. Due to the small “Don’t know” percentage, the two graphs are almost identical.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Eugene Library Measure Trend

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Two points stand out about the library polling and final result. First, neither the polling nor the final result was much different from 50%.  Sure there was an up and down, but, there was very little overall movement. The total range was only 5% – less than the poll’s margin of error. The final result was only 2% above the initial poll. Second, this lack of movement is not surprising since the initial poll showed only 6% undecided. That is very low. People generally already had a clear opinion.

All of this implies the campaign was much more about small movements than wide information. The small but strong rise at the end of a campaign, under these conditions, generally indicates a strong and successful final push, either through get-out-the-vote (GOTV) or advocacy (mail, phone, etc.) or a combination. Data in future posts will tend to corroborate this conclusion.

QUESTION: Eugene will have this measure on the November 3 ballot: Five-Year Library Local Option Levy. Shall Eugene levy $2, 700,000/year for five years, beginning 2016-2017, to increase library hours and expand other library services? This measure may cause property taxes to increase more than three percent? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene November 2015 Special Election voters were conducted October 14-15, 2015 and again on October 26-27, 2015 for a total of 400 interviews. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

Comparing Piercy’s and Torrey’s Ratings

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This post compares two Eugene mayors, Kitty Piercy this past February, and Jim Torrey in May of 2003, at about the same time before they left office. Piercy has announced she’s leaving office in January 2017 and Torrey left office in January 2005.

Several things jump out. First, Torrey’s positive job performance (total of excellent and good) was more than ten points higher than Piercy’s is now. In general, Torrey’s ratings were higher than Piercy’s. Second, Piercy is significantly more polarizing among the electorate with 50% rating her either excellent or poor compared to half that, 25%, rating Torrey that way. Third, the “Don’t Know” percentages are about the same and are very low. Virtually everyone has an opinion about the mayor, then and now.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job ________ is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Jim Torrey
Kitty Piercy

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7-8, 2003 for Mayor Torrey and Feb. 16-18, 2015 for Mayor Piercy. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Piercy Job Performance Ratings Past Two Years

 

 

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Mayor Piercy has been in net negative territory since January 2013.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Kitty Piercy is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of Jan. 23-24, June 10-11, Sep. 23-24, and Dec. 4-5, 2013, Feb. 11-14, May 27-28, Sep. 15-16, and Dec. 2-3, 2014 and Feb. 16-18, 2015.. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.