Posts tagged ‘Lane County Polling’

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Behind

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The proposed Lane County Vehicle Registration Fee is losing in a landslide.

There are three factors that alone or in combination might explain this. First, Lane County generally does not like new kinds of taxes or fees, such as income taxes and the like. They usually lose in landslides. Just look at Mayor Piercy’s failures in Eugene. In that sense, this result is to be expected.

Second, it might not be clear to the general public how this measure fits in the larger context. The campaign for the successful jail levy had its direct roots in the 2009 “Fund the Jail” grass roots campaign. By contrast, road maintenance didn’t seem to figure at all in last May’s campaigns. Commissioner Bozievich, for example, emphasized the economy and public safety.

Finally, the Kitzhaber resignation could be compounding the measure’s woes. Other research implies that Oregon’s confidence in its government took a huge hit and the vehicle registration might just be on the ballot at the wrong time.

How to balance these? These results are consistent with other polls our company has done in the area. That observation supports the first two factors. The extremely low “don’t know” percentage supports the third factor – people will say “no” to anything government proposes. This should not be underestimated. Under usual circumstances, the “don’t know” should be closer to 20 percent.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted March 9-10, 2015 and April 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

REFERENCES: Polling presented at the Dorchester Conference: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/03/at_seaside_conference_gop_mode.html.

Jay Bozievich Favorability Ratings

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Jay Bozievich’s favorable have dropped a bit countywide. This is probably due to the controversies he has been involved in during the past year.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Bozievich?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2014 General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Faye Stewart Favorability Ratings

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Faye Stewart’s countywide position has improved over the past two years. He now has a net positive favorability rating.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Faye Stewart?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2014 General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

 

Liane Richardson Countywide Favorability

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Liane Richardson’s favorability rating is very bad. The ratio of favorable to unfavorables is one to three and far worse even than Rob Handy’s (see last post).

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Liane Richardson?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of likely 2014 Lane County General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Rob Handy Favorability Ratings

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Rob Handy’s countywide unfavorable have increased significantly since February 2012. This implies the original court case had much less impact than subsequent events, such as the campaign and resulting defeat, investigations, and law suits..

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rob Handy?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2014 General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Peter Sorenson Favorability Ratings

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Sorenson’s favorable continue to improve the further time passes from the open meetings law violation finding.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Peter Sorenson?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2014 General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Sid Leiken Favorability Ratings

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Sid Leiken continues with high net favorable countywide.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sid Leiken?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2012 General Election voters were conducted February 29 through March 2, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 live telephone interviews of a random sample of Lane County likely 2014 General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Lane Levy for Jail Beds and Prosecutors?

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This polls the weakest of the three scenarios. A measure for jail beds and prosecutors, without rural patrols, would be behind.

It should be noted that this question was asked after rural patrols was mentioned. The “comprehensive” question was asked first, as is standard in polling methodology.

QUESTION
Would you support or oppose a Lane County government countywide property tax levy that would add to the number of jail beds and prosecutors? IF DON’T KNOW: How would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of likely 2014 Lane County General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The word “prosecutor” is used instead of “district attorney” in order to avoid potential confusion with county attorney. That confusion appears to have happened on some surveys.

Lane Levy for Jail Beds and Rural Patrols

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This question tests a levy for jail beds and rural patrols. This potential measure leads and does reach the 50 percent level.

QUESTION
Would you support or oppose a Lane County government countywide property tax levy that would add to the number of jail beds and rural patrols? IF DON’T KNOW: How would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of likely 2014 Lane County General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Comprehensive Lane Public Safety Levy

 

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A comprehensive Lane levy to support public safety is narrowly ahead, but falls below the 50 percent standard since undecided voters would tend to vote no.

QUESTION
Would you support or oppose a Lane County government countywide property tax levy that would add to the number of jail beds, rural patrols, and prosecutors? IF DON’T KNOW: How would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of likely 2014 Lane County General Election voters were conducted October 28-29, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.