Posts tagged ‘Oregon 2008 Election’

OREGON AND WASHINGTON PARTISAN STATEWIDE CONTEST RESULTS: 2003-2008

This chart shows that despite Republican Presidential nominees doing better in Oregon than in Washington, Oregon home-grown Republicans have had much less success than their Washington counterparts in recent years.Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; Washington Secretary of State.

This analysis includes all statewide contests except Presidential contests. Only partisan contests are included.

Washington Republicans have won five statewide contests during this period. Oregon Republicans have won no statewide contests during this period.

The 2003 through 2008 period was chosen because it represents the most recent “Senate cycle” or six-year period.

Note that the two states are on different electoral schedules. Washington contests for Governor and constitutional offices are held in Presidential years. Oregon contests for Governor are held in even-numbered non-Presidential years. Oregon contests for constitutional offices, since 1995, are held in Presidential years. U. S. Senate contests, of course, are on a six-year calendar.

An incumbent is the person holding the office running for the office. This is a broader definition than just those running for re-election. Open seats are when no incumbent is running.

For related information please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=115

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; Washington Secretary of State.

OREGON AND CALIFORNIA PARTISAN STATEWIDE CONTEST RESULTS: 2003-2008

This chart shows that despite Republican Presidential nominees doing better in Oregon than in California, Oregon home-grown Republicans have had much less success than their California counterparts in recent years.

This analysis includes all statewide contests except Presidential contests. Only partisan contests are included.

California Republicans have won three statewide contests during this period. Oregon Republicans have won no statewide contests during this period.

The 2003 through 2008 period was chosen because it represents the most recent “Senate cycle” or six-year period.

Note that the two states are on different electoral schedules. California contests for Governor and constitutional offices are held in even-numbered non-Presidential years. Oregon contests for Governor are held in even-numbered non-Presidential years. Oregon contests for constitutional offices, since 1995, are held in Presidential years. U. S. Senate contests, of course, are on a six-year calendar.

An incumbent is the person holding the office running for the office. This is a broader definition than just those running for re-election. Open seats are when no incumbent is running.

For related information please see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=115

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; California Secretary of State.

OREGON COMPARED WITH CALIFORNIA AND WASHINGTON IN PRESIDENTIAL CONTESTS 2004-2008

The Republican Presidential nominee did better in Oregon than in either California or Washington in 2004 and 2008.

Subsequent blog postings will refer back to the fact that Oregon is more Republican in national politics than either California or Washington.

The numbers are the two party Republican share of the vote.

Note that Oregon was a better Bush state than California or Washington in 2000, as well, though Nader’s vote makes the analysis more complicated.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State; California Secretary of State; Washington Secretary of State.

Naturally the colors are Duck green, Husky purple, and Bear blue.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE AND NET REPUBLICAN STATE HOUSE SEATS, 1964-2008

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The blue line is the Democratic registration advantage among voters since 1964.

The red line is the net Republican advantage in House seats since 1964.

Generally, the lines move in opposite directions. This implies Republican fortunes are driven, in large part, by the party registration of those voting.

Note the improvement in Republican registration during the past couple of decades has not been matched by an improving Republican position in the House.

Sources of data: Oregon Secretary of State. Edwards, Cecil L., ed., Chronological List of Oregon’s Legislatures, State of Oregon Legislative Administrative Committee, Salem Oregon, 1993. The Oregon Blue Book was used for subsequent years.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE AND INDEPENDENT PERCENTAGE, 1964-2008

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The blue line is the Democratic registration advantage among voters since 1964 (= % of actual voters who are Democrats minus % of actual voters who are Republicans).

The green line is the Independent percentage of actual voters.

Note two trends:

The Independent percentage, as a share of voters, has generally increased since 1970.
The Democratic advantage generally decreased until 2006.

Note two observations:

2002 was the best Republican turnout year since 1964.
The Democrats enjoyed a sharp spike among voters in 2008.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

OREGON DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE AND INDEPENDENT PERCENTAGE, 1964-2008