Posts tagged ‘Oregon 2010 Primary’

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Non Major Party Registrants by Vote Propensity

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Unlike for age, the ballot return rates by vote propensity for other voters is generally similar to the two major parties. For comparison see Democrat return rates at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3327 and Republican return rates at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3330.

This implies that, in a social science statistical sense, vote propensity to some extent “controls” for age as a predictor in voter behavior. More research results on this point will be coming later.

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Republicans by Vote Propensity

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats is visible in every vote propensity. That advantage is highest among 2/4 and 3/4 voters. See: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3327

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Democrats by Vote Propensity

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. More frequent, higher propensity, voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Non Major Party Registrants by Age

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Democratic and Republican turnouts were significantly higher than Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters for every age category.
See Democrats at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3315
See Republicans at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3318

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Republicans by Age

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

See the Democrats ballot return by age: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3315

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Ballot Return Date for Democrats by Age

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In general terms, the demographics of relative ballot return rates were like most elections. Older voters tended to return their ballots earlier.

Notice the relatively sharper uptick at the end for voters 59 and younger.

The figure shows the percentage of all ballots returned by date. Weekend numbers are irregular because counties have different policies for accepting ballots received on Saturday.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Statewide Turnout Rates by Party and Vote Propensity

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The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats in every vote propensity. That advantage is highest among 2/4 and 3/4 voters.

An interesting characteristic is that Democrats and Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters had roughly the same turnout rates, with Democrats holding a consistent 1 to 4 percent advantage, for all vote propensities except 4/4 where Democrats held a 9 percent advantage.

These patterns probably reflect the anomalously high Democratic turnout in the 2008 Primary.

There are a number of earlier posts on this blog examining the 2008 Oregon Democratic Primary. For example, see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1047

For turnout by age see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3302

The vote propensity is the turnout for the last four primaries and generals (2006 Primary and General and 2008 Primary and General).

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.

Oregon May 2010 Primary: Statewide Turnout Rates by Party and Age

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The Republican turnout advantage over Democrats in every age category. That advantage is a fairly consistent 2 to 4 percent for each.

Democratic and Republican turnouts were significantly higher than Other Parties and Non-affiliated voters for every age category.

Data sources: Oregon Secretary of State and Labels and Lists of Bellevue, Washington.