Lindholm Company Blog

Hill was a former statewide elected official. Previously, Hill was a state legislator from Salem. Hill was not supported by the Democratic establishment.

The critical importance for Democrats of winning the Portland media market is evident in this map. The Portland media market covers all of Oregon except from Lane County (Eugene) south in western Oregon, the northeast corner of the state, and the southern tier of counties in central and eastern Oregon.

The adage of “dominate the dominant media market” held true for Democrats. Hill did best in Marion and Polk counties, in the rest of the Willamette Valley outside of Portland, and in northeastern Oregon.

Oregon 2002 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 48.21%
Hill  26.05%
Stein  21.60%
Other   4.14%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1789

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Kulongoski won the Primary. Kulongoski was a former statewide elected official. Decades earlier, Kulongoski was a state legislator from Lane County.

The critical importance for Democrats of winning the Portland media market is evident in this map. The Portland media market covers all of Oregon except from Lane County (Eugene) south in western Oregon, the northeast corner of the state, and the southern tier of counties in central and eastern Oregon.

The adage of “dominate the dominant media market” held true for Democrats. Kulongoski was the candidate of the Democratic establishment. Kulongoski did best in the Portland media market.

Oregon 2002 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 48.21%
Hill  26.05%
Stein  21.60%
Other   4.14%

Map range consists of shades of green with more intense green indicating more intense support.

For a general discussion of this contest, the statewide percentages for each of the three major candidates. and a map of which counties were won by which candidate please see this post: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1789

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State.

The 1994 Republican Gubernatorial Primary has been perhaps the most clearly ideological Republican Gubernatorial Primary in Oregon between 1958 and the present. Smith was the conservative and Berkman was the moderate. Smith won the primary by a relatively narrow margin.

Despite the sharp ideological contrast, geography was still key. Smith’s victory had an important geographical element.

The counties that Smith won are in red.
The counties that Berkman won are in yellow.

Smith won much of his former Congressional district and most of the more rural western Oregon counties. Berkman won Multnomah and Washington counties and split eastern Oregon. The two candidates ran relatively even statewide, with, perhaps, a slight edge to Berkman, but Smith built up in margin in his former congressional district. Without his base in the 5th Congressional District, it is unclear if Smith would have won.

The redder the tint, the better Smith did. The more yellow the tint, the better Berkman did. Keep in mind that a relatively narrow margin in a large county, like Multnomah, means a much larger victory margin than a big win in a central or eastern Oregon county.

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Smith  49.52%
Berkman  40.55%
Other   9.94%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Saxton won the primary by a wide margin. This was in the face of the wide support Mannix enjoyed from the Republican establishment. Much of the 2002 Roberts coalition lined up behind Mannix. The state’s Republican establishment failed to get their chosen candidates nominated in both 2002 and 2006.

Atkinson and Mannix were the more conservative candidates, yet they lost. Even with Mannix’ meltdown late in the campaign, these voters did not switch to Atkinson.

Counties that Saxton won are in yellow.
Counties that Mannix won are in red.
Counties that Atkinson won are in orange.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is more important than among Democrats

Oregon 2006 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Saxton  41.69%
Mannix  29.80%
Atkinson 22.31%
Other   6.21%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Kulongoski won the primary by a wide margin. However, he barely improved on his 2002 performance.Kulongoski was the incumbent and widely supported by the party establishment. The Oregon Democratic establishment has generally gotten their nominee in recent decades. Historically, Democratic Gubernatorial primaries are much less likely to be seriously contested than Republican.

The counties Kulongoski won, 35 out of 36, are in blue.The one county Hill won is in yellow. As a sign of Kulongoski’s 2006 weakness, he lost a county in 2006 while he won every county in 2002. The critical importance for Democrats of winning the Portland media market is evident in this map. The Portland media market essentially covers all of Oregon except from Lane County (Eugene) south in western Oregon, the northeast corner of the state, and the southern tier of counties in central and eastern Oregon. The only county Kulongoski lost was far from Portland.

Oregon 2006 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 52.82%
Hill  28.56%
Sorenson 15.87%
Other   2.75%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Mannix won the primary by a comparatively slim margin. Roberts’ wide support from the Oregon Republican establishment did not get him through. The state’s Republican establishment failed to get their chosen candidates nominated in both 2002 and 2006.  In fact, public polling had Saxton running second and Roberts third going into the final stretch.

Mannix was the more conservative candidate, yet he barely took first.

Counties that Saxton won are in yellow.
Counties that Mannix won are in red.
Counties that Roberts won are in orange.

Geography is at least as important as ideology in deciding the Republican nominee. Geography is more important than among Democrats

Oregon 2002 Republican Primary Statewide Results
Mannix  35.24%
Roberts  29.47%
Saxton  28.11%
Other   7.18%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State

Kulongoski won the primary by a wide margin. Kulongoski was widely supported by the party establishment. The Oregon Democratic establishment has generally gotten their nominee in recent decades. Historically, Democratic Gubernatorial primaries are much less likely to be seriously contested than Republican.

Counties (all) that Kulongoski won are in blue.

Oregon 2002 Democratic Primary Statewide Results
Kulongoski 48.21%
Hill  26.05%
Stein  21.60%
Other   4.14%

Source of election returns: Oregon Secretary of State