January 29, 2018, 10:00 am
Party registration was the most important predictor of how someone would vote on the measure. Paralleling the declining undecided, this analysis shows that Democrats coalesced behind the measure and Republicans coalesced in opposition.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.
January 29, 2018, 8:00 am
Measure 101 kept a significant lead throughout the campaign. Voters had little information at the start of the campaign (a whopping 28% undecided). The share opposing steadily increased. The last minute push by the “Yes” campaign had an impact.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon January Special Election voters were conducted December 11-13, 2017, January 3-5, 2018, and January 15-17, 2018. The margin of error at the sample median for each of the surveys is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample. The panel includes 1200 interviews with a margin of error at the sample median of 3%.
December 18, 2017, 10:00 am
As should be no surprise to anyone, the most important demographic split is by party. Democrats are clearly more supportive.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
CHAID was used to create the tree diagram.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.
December 18, 2017, 8:00 am
Measure 101 is receiving support from slightly more than half of likely voters. Considering it is a tax measure, undecided voters are likely to be no voters on net. The high “Don’t Know,” more than a quarter of respondents, shows that the general public has very little information about this measure.
In comparison to the January 2010 election and measures 66 and 67 at this time in 2009 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1646), Measure 101 is doing better among voters, but has a larger “Don’t Know.”
The bottom line is that voters haven’t settled on this measure and, given these data, it shouldn’t surprise anyone too much if either “Yes” or “No” won in the end.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.
February 9, 2016, 8:00 am
Requiring a legislative supermajority to declare a law an emergency is opposed.
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a ballot measure amending the Constitution: Requires two-thirds supermajority for legislature to declare emergency that accelerates law’s effective date?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
February 8, 2016, 8:00 am
A proposed $15/hour statewide minimum wage gained support between September and December, but is still losing.
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a $15/hour statewide minimum wage in Oregon? IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
January 28, 2016, 8:00 am
Governor Brown’s job performance, both approval and disapproval, has been tracking in the mid 40s since she assumed the position.
QUESTION: How would you rate the job Governor Kate Brown is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”
January 27, 2016, 8:00 am
Kate Brown’s recognition, as well as favorable and unfavorable ratings quickly rose after she became governor, but has since remained largely unchanged.
QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kate Brown? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted October 27-30, 2014 and February 9-11, July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”
January 26, 2016, 8:00 am
John Kitzhaber’s favorable and unfavorable ratings dropped in 2015 after his ethical problems became clear. His ratings have stabilized since his resignation.
QUESTION: I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kitzhaber? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted October 27-30, 2014 and February 9-11, July 13-15, September 14-16, and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
“Approve” = “Excellent” + “Good” / “Disapprove” = “Fair” + “Poor”
January 22, 2016, 8:00 am
Whereas the new gun background checks law is strongly supporting, adding increased gun restrictions to that new law is a toss up. The incredibly low “Don’t Know” percentage testifies to the entrenched viewpoints.
It is important to note that no specific restriction was mentioned in the wording of the question.
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose increasing restrictions on gun ownership?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon general election voters were conducted September 14-16 and December 8-10, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.
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