Posts tagged ‘Recent Eugene Measure Study’

1998 and 2006 Library and Parks Measures Compared

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The Library and Park measures in 2006 were extensions of the 1998 measures. They were reasonably similar.  They provide a unique comparison between the two mayors. As can be seen, there was a significant drop in support between 1998 and 2006 for both measures.

There were a number of differences between the measures. It’s not clear if they helped or hindered the 2006 measures. For example, new measures, as both 1998 measures were, tend to do less well than renewals with a track record.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Piercy vs. Torrey Money Measures Detailed

Torrey initiated a whole set of novel measures. These include the youth activity measures and the parks and library measures.

Piercy’s record becomes worse when the measures are broken up. Two of her four wins are renewals of Torrey measures (Library and Parks in November, 2006). Her other two wins are street repair measures. These were responses to the 2008 Torrey for Mayor campaign. Her own proposed 2007 Gas Tax measure  failed in a landslide. In other words, her four wins to date have all been heavily influenced by Torrey and her original ideas have failed.

Piercy’s losses were the gas tax, urban renewal, school income tax, and service fee.

How Does Kitty Piercy’s Money Measure Success Stack Up with Jim Torrey’s?

This post reviews all the money measures during Jim Torrey’s two terms as mayor and under Kitty Piercy’s two terms plus.

Torrey’s winning percentage was much higher, at 77 percent. Piercy’s to date is at 50 percent.

… but, this doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

 

 

Summary of Recent Money Measure Posts

There is one clear message from the analysis during the past few weeks: Unusual tax measures have a problem. If the City of Eugene places one on the ballot  then a range of other factors would need to be above average: the need has to be clear and the amount has to be low. The assumption is that Mayor Piercy’s trust level and the state of the economy are out of the measure designers’ control.

Average Trend Non-Property Tax Measures

 

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Two things are clear:

1. The lack of increase in “Yes” votes over time. Where these

2. The surge in “No” voters the last week.

Not all measures drop over time. For example, the May 2012 Lane County public safety measure: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9053

The data are the polling from three weeks out, one week out and the results on Election Day. Three weeks is just before the ballots are mailed.

The four measures included in this analysis are:
November 2006 Library Measure
November 2006 Parks Measure
November 2008 Roads Measure
November 2012 Roads Measure

The links to the earlier analyses of the four non-property tax measures used here:
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9400
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9492
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9395
http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9408

May 2013 Service Fee Polling Trend

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What is interesting is how well this measure started compared to the other measures. This could be because the tracking started much earlier.

Support dropped as it did for the other measures, only much faster.

QUESTION:
City of Eugene Measure 20-211: Monthly fee for City fire, police, homelessness and other services. Shall City maintain fire, police, homelessness and quality of life services with monthly fee capped at $10 for residences? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely May 2013 City of Eugene Special Election voters on each of April 2-3, April 29-30, and May 13-14, 2013. The margin of error at the sample median was 7 percent.

January 2013 Polling on Proposed Eugene Service Fee Increase

It was clear before hand that Eugeneans would  decisively reject the proposed service fee increase.

These numbers are obviously biased against the proposal. The service cuts are not mentioned. However, this indicates how important the specific service cuts are for any measure of this kind – just to keep it afloat for a small time.

Stay tuned for the next post for the tracking on this measure when it was on the ballot.

QUESTION:
If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on a City of Eugene service fee increase for all households and businesses of $120 per year?

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General Election voters conducted January 23-24, 2013. The margin of error at the median is plus or minus 7 percent.

January 2013 Polling on Proposed Eugene Stormwater Charge Increase

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This was one of the policy options discussed before the May 2013 election. If it had been on a ballot, Eugeneans would  have decisively rejected the proposed stormwater charge increase.

QUESTION:
If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on a City of Eugene stormwater charge increase for all households and businesses of $120 per year?

The question wording was designed to parrallel the service fee question wording.

METHODOLOGY:
200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General Election voters conducted January 23-24, 2013. The margin of error at the median is plus or minus 7 percent.

May 2011 Income Tax Polling Trend

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Keeping in mind that the “Don’t Knows” almost always vote “No,” it’s clear that the income measure never had much of a chance. The forecast “Yes” vote never even came close to 50 percent.

It’s interesting that the highly expensive “No” campaign barely made a dent. That was probably because the income tax started in such a poor position in the first place.

QUESTION:
Measure 20-182. Temporary City Income Tax for Schools. Should the City impose a personal income tax on Eugene residents for four years to support local schools?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:
Random sample of 200 live telephone interviews of likely May 2011 Eugene Special Election voters from each of April 18-19, April 25-26, May 2-3, and May 9-10, 2011. Margin of error for each survey at the sample median is 7 percent.

November 2007 Gas Tax Measure Polling Trend

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In this case, there was no clear drop. In part this was because it was ignored by both sides during the campaign. It also reflects that the needs were widely recognized.

The 2008 Torrey mayoral campaign picked latent need this up and pushed this issue to the top of the agenda.

QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 20-132: City Gas Tax: Shall city increase Business License Tax paid by fuel dealers by 3 cents per gallon? IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Random sample of 200 live telephone interviews of likely November 2007 Eugene Special Election voters from each of September 10-11, October 15-16, October 22-23, and October 29-30, 2007. Margin of error for each survey at the sample median is 7 percent.