Lindholm Company Blog

This post presents some analysis of the polling results for the Springfield mayoral race presented earlier.  This graphic shows tracking poll predictions and the final vote. The original results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7741.

Using this simulation technique, there was virtually no change in support levels during the two months of the campaign before the election. This implies that Springfield voters are pretty settled on their preferences for mayor and probably on the direction of the city.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining two-thirds would go to the challenger. In this case, one-third of the undecided were assigned to Lundberg and two-thirds to Bean.

This graphic shows the tracking poll results and the final vote. Christine Lundberg kept her wide lead over the course of the campaign.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The May 15 Primary ballots are being mailed today. We thought it might be a good idea to compare voter attitudes about Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg and Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy.

Once again, Springfield voters seem much happier than Eugene voters. Whereas Mayor Piercy supporters roughly equal her opponents, Mayor Lundberg has a better than two-to-one edge.

QUESTIONS
If the election were held today, would you vote to Re-Elect Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy or vote for someone else?

If the election were held today, would you vote to Keep Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg or vote for someone else?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Here is the third post in the series. It’s the same story as the previous two. Springfield voters are a lot happier than Eugene voters.

QUESTIONS
How would you rate the job the Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job the Springfield City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

This post compares the mayoral approval ratings among likely primary voters in Eugene and Springfield.

Though it’s tough being an elected official these days, Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg has much better ratings than Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy.

QUESTIONS
How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

How would you rate the job Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

This post is the first in a series that compare likely voter attitudes in the upcoming Eugene and Springfield primaries.

Here are the results from the ubiquitous “Right Direction/Wrong Track” question. It’s very clear that the Springfield voters are a much happier group than the Eugene voters.

QUESTIONS
In general, do you feel Eugene is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

In general, do you feel Springfield is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Eugene Primary voters were conducted February 22 through 24, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

You will note that the Springfield City Council has something very rare for any city council these days … a net positive approval rating.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job the Springfield City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

Mayor Lundberg has a solid approval advantage.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

Springfield Primary voters overwhelmingly think the city is going in the right direction. It’s important to put this in a larger context. The national and state economies aren’t doing that great.

QUESTION
In general, do you feel Springfield is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Incumbent Mayor Christine Lundberg has a commanding lead in the Springfield Mayor race.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The totals include leaners.