Lindholm Company Blog

This compares turnout in recent special elections in Eugene and Springfield. Each city’s voters faced at least one money measure on the ballot during each election.

Several observations stand out: 1. Eugene’s turnout exceeded Springfield’s in every election – sometimes by a lot! 2. Springfield’s turnout has been more stable. 3. Contrary to some reports, this past November’s turnout was not especially low for a special election with money measures.

Money measures by election by relevent jurisdiction:
May 2013: Lane and Eugene
May 2015: Lane
Nov. 2015: Eugene and Springfield

In general money measures drive turnout in special elections. All else equal, the turnout roughly doubles.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

This post follows the Springfield Mayoral election post at http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7831.

The ward-by-ward Springfield mayoral and city council votes continues to confirm how different Springfield is from Eugene.

There is an extremely strong citywide consensus in favor of the current city leadership.

Wards 1 through 3:

Wards 4 through 6:

Looking a five winning candidates in six wards (a total of 30 observations), only one was under 50 percent (Ralston in Ward 3) … and even then not by much.

Source of Data: Lane County Elections

A Springfield Ward Map is at: http://www.ci.springfield.or.us/Pubworks/TechnicalServices/SpatialDataProducts/StandardMaps/std_map_wards.pdf

The ward-by-ward Springfield mayoral vote confirms how different Springfield is from Eugene. Compared with the Eugene Mayoral contest (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7828), the Springfield mayoral results were almost constant citywide.

Lundberg won by almost exactly the same percentage in every ward. Piercy had a 40-point spread between her top and bottom wards in Eugene. Lundberg had only a 7-point spread between her top and bottom wards.

Source of Data: Lane County Elections

A Springfield Ward Map is at: http://www.ci.springfield.or.us/Pubworks/TechnicalServices/SpatialDataProducts/StandardMaps/std_map_wards.pdf

This post presents some analysis of the polling results for the Springfield mayoral race presented earlier.  This graphic shows tracking poll predictions and the final vote. The original results are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=7741.

Using this simulation technique, there was virtually no change in support levels during the two months of the campaign before the election. This implies that Springfield voters are pretty settled on their preferences for mayor and probably on the direction of the city.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

The adjustment assumed that one-third of the undecided voters would vote for the incumbent and that the remaining two-thirds would go to the challenger. In this case, one-third of the undecided were assigned to Lundberg and two-thirds to Bean.

This graphic shows the tracking poll results and the final vote. Christine Lundberg kept her wide lead over the course of the campaign.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The election results are the final unofficial numbers from Lane County Elections.

You will note that the Springfield City Council has something very rare for any city council these days … a net positive approval rating.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job the Springfield City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

Mayor Lundberg has a solid approval advantage.

QUESTION
How would you rate the job Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Following common methodology, I have grouped excellent and good together to form the approval and fair and poor together to form the disapproval.

Springfield Primary voters overwhelmingly think the city is going in the right direction. It’s important to put this in a larger context. The national and state economies aren’t doing that great.

QUESTION
In general, do you feel Springfield is heading in the right direction or do you think things have gotten off on the wrong track?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

Incumbent Mayor Christine Lundberg has a commanding lead in the Springfield Mayor race.

QUESTION
If the election for Mayor of Springfield were held today, would you vote for Christine Lundberg or Denise Bean (ROTATE NAMES)? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.

The totals include leaners.

Springfield Primary voters pretty clearly want to keep Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg. She has a commanding 46 to 19 lead.

As an aside, these questions are normally called “re-elect” in the trade. However, in Oregon, since Mayor Lundberg was appointed, the term used is “keep.”

QUESTION
If the election were held today, would you vote to Keep Springfield Mayor Christine Lundberg or vote for someone else?

METHODOLOGY
200 telephone interviews of likely 2012 City of Springfield Primary voters were conducted March 13 and 14, 2012. The margin of error at the sample median is 7 percent.