Lindholm Company Blog

As with the Lane County Commission districts, the yes % pattern generally followed the typical lines. One interesting grouping, however, stands out. The south Eugene wards (1, 2, and 3) were most supportive. The north Eugene wards (4 and 5) were next most supportive. The west Eugene wards (6, 7, and 8) were least supportive. Ward 7 appears to be transitioning from being the old central Eugene ward into being one of the west Eugene wards. This, if it becomes a trend and continues, could make the 2016 Ward 7 city council contest very interesting since councilor Syrett has been one of Mayor Piercy’s strongest allies on the council.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

The support for the vehicle registration fee generally followed the expected pattern. South Eugene was most supportive, just as it was for the 2013 Jail Levy. North Eugene came next. Interestingly, however, is that East Lane’s Yes % exceeded by Springfield and West Lane. This was, in part, driven by the comparatively higher Yes % in southwest Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

This post looks at the predicted yes percentage. It was always close to the final margin. This means the campaigns, both privately run and county-run, provided little significant information to voters.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

The measure’s support hovered around the mid 30s since the Voter’s Pamphlet was sent. The opposition was never much below 60%. The measure never had a chance.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

After getting every statewide partisan candidate and statewide measure contest right in last November’s General Election, the company’s extended that streak.

The company got Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee result right last night. The company’s polling was consistently below 40 percent and the final result, as of this writing, looks to be around 34 percent – within the margin of error of every single one of our polls.

This blog will post more results about the election after Lane County Elections produces the Final Unofficial results later this week.

The Lane County vehicle registration fee is losing among everyone except South Eugene Democrats.

This is more evidence that south Eugene’s politics differ sharply from the rest of the county.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

CHAID: The above four surveys were combined into a single dataset. The tree was constructed using CHAID with the dependent variables being: survey date, gender, age, political party, and county commission district.

The measure continues to gain. This is probably due to the political campaign in favor and the county’s information campaign. There has been no organized opposition. The measure seems on track to be around 40 percent.

These numbers are from one week ago.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

The “yes” percentage jumped up since the beginning of the month and the “no” has continued its steady decline.

It’s not time for supporters to get too excited yet. Everything is consistent with the typical mid 30s support for new measures. However, things are going in the right direction.

Several observations: First, both the county’s and the political campaign have now kicked off. They almost certainly had some effect. Next, we’re getting further from the Kitzhaber resignation. That probably also had an effect. Finally, the “no” side is still at 60%. It still needs to drop a long way before the measure has any chance to pass.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, and April 27-28, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

The proposed Lane County Vehicle Registration Fee is losing in a landslide.

There are three factors that alone or in combination might explain this. First, Lane County generally does not like new kinds of taxes or fees, such as income taxes and the like. They usually lose in landslides. Just look at Mayor Piercy’s failures in Eugene. In that sense, this result is to be expected.

Second, it might not be clear to the general public how this measure fits in the larger context. The campaign for the successful jail levy had its direct roots in the 2009 “Fund the Jail” grass roots campaign. By contrast, road maintenance didn’t seem to figure at all in last May’s campaigns. Commissioner Bozievich, for example, emphasized the economy and public safety.

Finally, the Kitzhaber resignation could be compounding the measure’s woes. Other research implies that Oregon’s confidence in its government took a huge hit and the vehicle registration might just be on the ballot at the wrong time.

How to balance these? These results are consistent with other polls our company has done in the area. That observation supports the first two factors. The extremely low “don’t know” percentage supports the third factor – people will say “no” to anything government proposes. This should not be underestimated. Under usual circumstances, the “don’t know” should be closer to 20 percent.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted March 9-10, 2015 and April 1-2, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

REFERENCES: Polling presented at the Dorchester Conference: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/03/at_seaside_conference_gop_mode.html.