Lindholm Company Blog

So far, several changes between 1986 and 2010 are apparent:
1. The Democrats have become more of an urban party and the Republicans have become more of a rural party.
2. The geographic concentration of both parties has become greater over time.

Of course, one thing remains the same: the winner in both cases is a South Eugene High School graduate.

These are the fastest growing counties in gubernatorial voters between 1986 and 2010. Counties that trended Republican are in red and those that trended Democratic are in blue.. Washington County was the biggest Republican county in 1986. It has trended Democratic. This is a key demographic factor in how Oregon political developments have gone against the Republicans the past 24 years

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

These are the fastest growing counties in gubernatorial voters between 1986 and 2010. Counties won by Paulus are in red and those won by Goldschmidt are in blue. Paulus lost narrowly, 52 percent to 48 percent, in 1986. Washington County was the biggest Republican county in 1986.

If you told an Oregon Republican strategist in 1986 that the fastest growing counties the next 24 years would be these, confidence would abound.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Look back at the 1986 results (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5215) and now look at the map above. If you had told a Republican strategist in 1986 that these population patterns would hold … how could they not expect a solidly Republican Oregon in 2010. The Republican areas in 1986 have generally grown the most. The Democratic areas in 1986 have generally grown the least.

Something has clearly happened to change the fundamental bases of partisan support in Oregon.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

This map shows just how much Oregon’s geographic divisions have increased over 24 years. Much of the Democratic advantage has come from changes in the Portland area.

The 1986 margin is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5215. The 2010 margin is at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5221.

The legend is in percentage terms. The map indicates the percentage voting for Chris Dudley (R) in the head-to-head with John Kitzhaber (D). Kitzhaber won with 51 percent. The statewide percentage for the Republican and Democratic candidates were roughly the same in 1986 and 2010.

It’s clear that, since 1986, Oregon’s geographic divisions have become much sharper. For example, Multnomah has become more Democratic. In addition, the Democrats have made inroads with Republican areas. The solidly Republican, in 1986,  suburban county, has gone to the Democrats.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

The map indicates the percentage voting for Norma Paulus (R) in the head-to-head with Neil Goldschmidt (D). Goldschmidt received 52 percent of the vote.

Paulus won eastern and southern Oregon and both suburban counties: Clackamas and Washington.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

The growth is in percentage terms.

In general, 1986’s Republican areas have grown the fastest. The greatest growth, clearly, has been in Deschutes County. One could have guessed that Republicans would be in control. However, that is not the case. Though Republicans are stronger in the state legislature than in 1986, first retaking the House in 1990, Republicans have been cleared out of statewide offices. Republicans held six of seven in 1986 and hold zero of six currently.

It’s also important to note that Multnomah County has not grown that much. The Democratic intensity has grown, but not the relative share of voters.

The registration margin changes by county between 1986 and 2010 are at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5272.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

The changes are in percentage terms.

Though the sense among many is that Oregon has shifted to the Democrats, there has been relatively little change during the past 24 years. In fact, as visible above, comparatively few counties have shifted toward the Democrats. The greatest shift towards Democrats has been in Multnomah County.

There has been a greater division statewide. Eastern and southern Oregon have become significantly more Republican.

This map is based on the 1986 registration figures http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5266 and the 2010 registration figures http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=5269.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State

Legend is the registration margin in percent by county in 1986.
Red is net Republican.
Blue is net Democratic.

Compared to 1986 far fewer counties are net Democratic, but the Democratic concentration in Multnomah County is much stronger.

Source of Data: Oregon Secretary of State