June 27, 2018, 8:00 am
Hills was not actively campaigning and it shows in the polling. No one noticed.
The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.
QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Beverly Hills IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Beverly Hills IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.
June 26, 2018, 8:00 am
Kent gained during the campaign, but not nearly enough. As seen in the Bozievich Name ID post (last one just before this), he just gained must faster.
The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.
QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Nora Kent IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Nora Kent?IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.
June 25, 2018, 8:00 am
Bozievich’s low net favorability at the beginning of the campaign tracks well with his initially low ballot standing. He steadily gained.
The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14823.
QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Jay Bozievich IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jay Bozievich? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.
June 19, 2018, 8:00 am
The Springfield contest was very different than the West Lane contest. Sid Leiken started in a very safe position: in the mid 50s. Then, between the ballots going out and a week before the election his support collapsed. He dropped 10%, down to the mid 40s. Not only that, but the Leiken campaign kept collapsing during the final week. Normally, Leiken would be expected to get about a third of the remaining 21% undecided. He only won a tenth!
Leiken’s 2014 race was more normal (see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10690).
In the last post we saw that Bozievich won West Lane due to the campaign. In this post we see that Leiken lost Springfield due to the campaign.
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Joe Berney or Sid Leiken? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.
June 18, 2018, 8:00 am
The story here is Jay Bozievich’s steady climb from a very weak position to a solid victory. In 2014 he barely won – it went down to a recount. After that, everyone knew he was weak. And a county commissioner running for re-election starting with less than 30% support is pretty weak. The big shift appears to have happened early. The King campaign essentially disintegrated in the weeks just before the ballots went out. During the final three weeks of the campaign Bozievich just cruised to victory.
Bozievich won re-election because of the campaign and not because of what he’d been doing for voters the past four years.
For comparison, see the tracking on Bozievich’s 2014 race: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10672
QUESTION: If the election were held today for Lane County Commissioner, would you vote for: Jay Bozievich, Beverley Hills, or Nora Kent? [IF DON’T KNOW]: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely West Lane County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-10, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.
January 25, 2018, 8:00 am
Republicans and business candidates are able to achieve a much greater partisan swing in Lane County than in Clackamas County.
Sources: Lane County Elections; Clackamas County Elections.
Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.
January 18, 2018, 8:00 am
Overall, 2/3s of Lane County Commissioners have run and won re-election this century. Of those who tried, 3/4s have won.
Source: Lane County Elections; Lane County Board of Commissioners.
January 11, 2018, 8:00 am
After a period of high risk and high attrition for Lane County Commissioners, it appears that things have settled down. Five out of the last five commissioners running for re-election have been successful. Three positions, East Lane, Springfield, and West Lane, will be up in 2018. We’ll all see if this trend of stability continues.
Source: Lane County Elections
January 4, 2018, 8:00 am
Pro-business candidates in Lane County have achieved significant partisan swings. However, they range widely – from a high of 48% to a low of 3%.
Source: Lane County Elections.
Method: The partisan swing equals the winning margin minus the difference between the Republican and the Democratic registration margins. A swing of zero means that the winning percentage exactly followed the partisan registration percentage. A positive swing means that the pro-business candidate won a greater percentage than the partisan registration would imply.
January 3, 2018, 8:00 am
Starting tomorrow and continuing on Thursdays will be a series of posts analyzing the history of Lane County politics and looking ahead to the three commissioner election
s later this year.
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