Lindholm Company Blog

Despite the dramatic turnout increases, there was relatively little change in the geographic distribution of  voters. The biggest shift, a 3% decrease, was in the Valley region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Turnout increased dramatically compared to 2014 in every region. This reflects Springfield’s growth. The one laggard, but, only in comparison, was the Valley region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Though there were turnout increases in every region, they had very little effect on the distribution of actual voters in the election.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Turnout increased in every region of the West Lane district compared to 2014. The greatest increase was in the Coast region.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Leiken’s support dropped in every region of the district since his 2014. The greatest drops were the in the areas where Berney did best.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Berney did better the further west in the district one went. The generally more affluent end of the district supported Leiken.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
West Springfield: Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Unincorporated portions of the district.

Bozievich improved in all regions in comparison to his nail-biting recount victory in the 2014 Primary. His greatest improvement was in the urban Santa Clara area.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Bozievich won all three major regions of the district, but he really piled up his margin of victory in the Central region. The Coast region, unsurprisingly, was the closest and where Kent did best.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Definitions of regions:
Coast: Precincts 702, 704, 4500, 4601 and 4602 (merged with 4601 after 2014 election).
Central: Precincts 706, 708, 710, 712, 714, 716, 4700 and 4900.
Santa Clara: Precincts 726, 732, 1569, 1671, 1781 and 1787.

Though Leiken sunk rapidly in the ballot tracking, there was little movement in his favorability rating – he was consistently hovering around 50%.  Springfield still likes Sid Leiken!

The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14825.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Sid Leiken IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sid Leiken? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Joe Berney’s favorability jumped dramatically after the ballots went out. This is one of the most rapid gains we have seen in local polling – more than 10% per week  and tripling!

The ballot tracking results are at: lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14825.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. Joe Berney IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Joe Berney? IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely Springfield County Commission District 2018 Primary voters were conducted each of March 12-13, April 23-24, and May 7-9, 2018. The margin of error for each survey at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.