Archive for July 2009

Approve/Disapprove Ratings for A’s Plan to Move to San Jose

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Even though the respondents are less familiar with the A’s plans than the 49er’s plans (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=872), the approval ratings are approximately equal (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=884).

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of moving the A’s baseball team to San Jose? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology:
The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of 2010 likely Santa Clara County Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.

Oregon 2008 State Treasurer Contest by County

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This post continues a series of posts on the 2008 “low information” partisan contest results in Oregon: Secretary of State and State Treasurer. “Low information” contests are those where, in general, the voter only has minimal “cues” about the candidates. These “cues” include political party and gender.

The last post showed how Rick Dancer (R) was able to break out of the mold in the Eugene TV market.

On the other hand, the Allen Alley (R) vs. Ben Westlund (D) contest was much more commonplace. Throughout the state, both candidates did just as one would expect, given their partisan labels.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon 2008 Secretary of State Contest by County

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This post begins a series of posts on the 2008 “low information” partisan contest results in Oregon: Secretary of State and State Treasurer. “Low information” contests are those where, in general, the voter only has minimal “cues” about the candidates. These “cues” include political party and gender.

Occasionally, a candidate is able to break out of those limitations. Rick Dancer (R) was for many years the news anchor on KEZI TV in Eugene. The Eugene market (DMA) covers Benton, Coos, Douglas, and Lane counties.

Consequently, the Kate Brown (D) v. Rick Dancer (R) contest results exhibited an unusual political geography. That Brown won the Democratic Portland area and Dancer won the Republican rural areas was expected. However, Dancer also won Democratic Lane County. Normally, a Republican win there heralds a statewide victory, such as Roberts in 1994 and Smith in 2002, but, in this case Dancer was defeated. The Democratic margin from the Portland area was just too great.

Source of data: Oregon Secretary of State.

Approve/Disapprove Ratings for 49er’s Plan to Move to Santa Clara

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Countywide, the 49er’s plan to move gets a net approval of 10% (48% approve and 38% disapprove). The 16% undecided is about normal for a policy proposal that has been circulated for this length of time.

Note that no details of the plan were specified so as not to bias the question. Well-funded campaigns by either proponents or opponents could significantly change these numbers.

For information on voters’ familiarity with the 49er’s and A’s proposed moves see: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=872

Question: Do you approve or disapprove of moving the 49er’s football team to Santa Clara? IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Methodology: The survey consisted of 400 telephone interviews of 2010 likely Santa Clara Count y Primary voters conducted June 16-18, 2009. Quotas and/or weights were established by gender, age, party, region, and vote history as part of the turnout model.