This post expands on an earlier post that contained the ballot contest results.

The name ID ratings give an idea of general strength in the district. This question shows how far ahead Rick Dancer currently is among the leading Republicans. A greater percentage of likely Republican Primary voters have a favorable rating of him than recognize the names of anyone else listed. Former statewide officeholder Jack Roberts and Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken are in a statistical tie trailing significantly.

It is reasonable to expect Dancer’s Name ID ratings to decline somewhat during 2009, though probably not enough to offset the current gap. The Leiken and Roberts Name ID ratings, on the other hand, should stay constant. This forecast assumes no significant changes in media profile, etc.

The exact question asked on the survey was: “Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me if you have heard of each. [If heard of then ask] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ___.” The order of names was randomly varied for each respondent. No occupation or other description was included.

The survey consists of 400 telephone interviews of likely 2010 Republican Primary voters conducted March 1 through 3, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. A model of the sample population was used to insure a representative sample.

The survey was conducted as part of a long term research project and was completely funded by Lindholm Research. No candidate for the 4th District is a client of Lindholm Research as of this writing.

Please refer to: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=84 for associated ballot contest results.

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