Measure 66 and 67 Survey Top Line Results

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This survey was designed to catch the Measure 66 and 67 campaigns when they started. The idea is to get a set of baseline numbers for future surveys.

The timing worked out well. The campaign advertising just started this week. The survey was conducted on Monday through Wednesday, just as the advertising started.

At the start of the campaign, Measure 66 is ahead by only 4% and the yes vote percentage hovers around 40%. Measure 67 is ahead by 13% and the yes vote percentage is under 50%. Neither measure is doing particularly well.

The electorate does not yet appear focused on the election. The undecided percentage is greater than 20% on both measures.

Increasing turnout improves the chances of passage for both Measure 66 and Measure 67. Looking at only the most highly motivated voters, support for both 66 and 67 drops. Measure 66 would move from leading to trailing 38% Yes to 41% No. Measure 67’s lead would diminish to a slender 43% Yes to 38% No.
 

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Measure 67 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 67: Raises $10 Corporate Minimum Tax, Business Minimum Tax, Corporate Profits Tax. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee.
As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.

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