Measure 66 Key Demographics Analysis


There are three key segments among voters on Measure 66:
1.Republicans and Other Registrants who oppose the tax by nearly two to one (Yes 27% to No 49%).
2.Democrats without college education, who slightly oppose the tax (Yes 31% to No 36%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Clinton Democrats in the 2008 Primary.
3.Democrat with at least some college, who strongly support the tax (Yes 65% to No 13%). This demographic segment reminds one of the Obama Democrats in the 2008 Primary.

Measure 66 Ballot Question Wording:
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 66: Raises tax on household income at and above $250,000 (and $125,000 for individual filers). Reduces income taxes on unemployment benefits in 2009. Provides funds currently budgeted for education, health care, public safety, other services.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

Survey Methodology:
400 live telephone interviews of likely January Oregon Special election voters were conducted November 30 through December 2, 2009. The margin of error at the sample median is 5 percent (with 95 percent confidence).

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection) was used to construct the graphic.

This survey was conducted as part of a long-term project studying Oregon politics and not for any political committee. As of the time this survey was conducted, Lindholm Research was not working for either the Yes or No sides.

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