Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary Tracking Survey Update

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Alley and Dudley are in a statistical tie: less the half the margin of error (5%) separates them. Alley’s support has increased dramatically the past two weeks while Dudley’s has not moved. Lower turnout should benefit Alley. Higher turnout should benefit Dudley.

The percentage of undecided, 29%, is very high and implies the final result is unknown.

Large movements in the final days have happened before in the Oregon Republican Gubernatorial Primary. In 2002, Ron Saxton went from first in the polls to finish in third place in the final few days.

BALLOT STANDING:
Alley 29%
Dudley 26%
Lim 10%
Sizemore 4%
Other 2%
Don’t know 29%

GOVERNOR BALLOT QUESTION
If the Republican Primary election for Governor were held today, would you vote for: Bill Sizemore, John Lim, Darren Karr, Clark Colvin, William Ames Curtright, Chris Dudley, Bob Forthan, Allen Alley, or Rex O Watkins?

Bill Sizemore
John Lim
Darren Karr
Clark Colvin
William Ames Curtright
Chris Dudley
Bob Forthan
Allen Alley
Rex O Watkins
Don’t know

METHODOLOGY
The survey consisted of 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2010 Oregon Republican Primary voters completed May 10-12, 2010.The margin of error at the sample median was 5 percent. Likelihood based on a turnout model that includes vote history, gender, age, and region.

Earlier surveys were conducted March 1-3, 2010 and April 26-28, 2010.

The results from the April 26-28, 2010 survey are posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3029. The results from the March 1-3, 2010 survey are posted at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=2837.

Lindholm Company is not currently working with any of the candidates in the contest.

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