Measure 97 Dropped Early and Stayed Down

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Support for Measure 97 dropped rapidly once the campaign began and remained around 40% for the duration.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot.
If the election were held today on Measure 97 Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education, healthcare, senior services, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon Presidential Vote Trend

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Clinton’s advantage remained relatively steady over time.

QUESTION: If the election  for President and Vice President were held today, would you vote for Donald J Trump and Mike Pence, Republican, or Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, Democrat, or Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka , Pacific Green, Progressive, or Gary Johnson and William Weld, Libertarian?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Three surveys of 400 live telephone interviews of likely Oregon 2016 General election voters each were conducted October 3-6, October 17-21, and October 31-November 2, 2016. Likelihood was determined based on modeling and was validated within the questionnaire. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

SOURCES: Election data from Oregon Secretary of State.

Lindholm Research Polling in the 2016 General

This blog is going to begin a series of posts based polling data collected during the 2016 Oregon General Election.  We will present the most prominent and interesting polling numbers first. Less prominent contests will come later – many in 2017.

We believe these analyses to be accurate. Though the headlines this year emphasize the inaccuracy of polling, our polls, just as in 2014, the firm’s polling correctly called every 2016 Oregon statewide partisan and measure contest. Although not a foolproof measure of accuracy, it is best assurance we can offer.

 

1916: Oregon Voters Expand Prohibition

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Oregonians outside the more urban Tri-County area voted to support expanding prohibition. As noted in the last post, the national pattern where urban areas were more supportive and rural areas were less supportive of prohibition also held in Oregon.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

1916: Oregon Voters Soundly Reject Prohibition Pullback

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Oregonians had passed a Prohibition Constitutional Amendment in 1914.  The 18th Amendment to the United States Constitution only took effect in 1920. In 1916, Oregonians were asked whether they wanted to pull back from prohibition (Measure 8) or to expand the impact of prohibition (measure 9).

The rejected pulling back by a landslide. The only place it was close was in Multnomah county. Across the nation prohibition did better in rural areas and worse in urban areas. That was true in Oregon as well.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

1916: Republican Hughes Wins Oregon – Democrat Wilson Elected

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Oregon voted for Republican Charles Evans Hughes over Democrat incumbent President Woodrow Wilson. Wilson had won Oregon in 1912 when incumbent President William Howard Taft and former President Theodore Roosevelt had split the Republican vote. In 1916, both Roosevelt and Taft campaigned for Hughes. Hughes narrowly lost the electoral college.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon Voters by Region, 1916

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Compared to today there were relatively more voters in Portland (Multnomah County) and in southern and eastern Oregon and substantially less in today’s suburban counties.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon Statewide Party Registration by Gender, 1916

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Women got the vote in Oregon in 1912. The United States only followed in 1920. Many women, particularly older women, were slow to register. That accounts for the still about 60% of voters in 1916 being men. Today there are more women registered in Oregon than men, largely due to longevity.

Note that women registered disproportionately for the Prohibition party. Contemporaries credited the passage of a prohibition constitutional amendment in Oregon in 1914 to women receiving the vote. Only men voted on the prohibition in 1910 it failed.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Oregon Statewide Party Registration, 1916

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The graphic above requires a bit of explanation. First, Oregon was an overwhelmingly Republican state in 1916 in registration. This continued to be true into the 1930s.

Second, there were three partisan primaries in May, 1916: Republican, Democratic, and Progressive. Teddy Roosevelt’s strong performance in the 1912 Oregon General Election qualified the Progressive party to hold primaries in 1914 and 1916.

Third, despite holding a primary, as opposed to a nominating convention like the Prohibition and Socialist parties did, there were fewer Progressive party members. It should be noted that registration was a bit different than today. Unlike the permanent registration we have today, registration was annual. One newspaper cartoon of the time showed how the Progressive party registration had no waiting line, unlike the Democrats and Republicans.

Finally, as one might guess based on the above information, the Progressive Party nominees didn’t get enough votes to maintain a primary after 1916. This year’s primary, 2016, was the first time since 1916 that Oregon had three major party primaries.

Source: Oregon Secretary of State.

Historical Retrospective Time … Again

As this blog has done during previous election weeks this blog is going to look back at an historical election. This time the blog will look at 1916 from 100 years ago. Once the dust settles, posts on the 2016 election results will resume.