Springfield Co. Comm. May 2014 Tracking

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Leiken maintained a commanding lead throughout the campaign.

The lack of opinion about his opponents is reflected in the high percentage of undecided respondents

QUESTION
If the election for county commissioner were held today, would you vote for Sid Leiken, Sheri Moore or Charmaine M. Rehg [ROTATE]?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of Springfield County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted April 29-May 1, 2014 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

East Lane Co. Comm. May 2014 Tracking

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Potential trouble for Stewart appeared in the first survey, he was under 40 percent. As Matthews gained rapidly, Stewart did not move.

The undecided percentage started significantly above incumbent Stewart’s initial vote. This corresponds to the relatively higher under vote percentages in the East Lane District than in the other two districts.

QUESTION
If the election for county commissioner were held today, would you vote for Faye Stewart, Joann Ernst, Kevin Matthews, Jose Ortal or Jack Schoolcraft [ROTATE]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of West Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

SOURCE OF ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

West Lane Co. Comm. May 2014 Tracking

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Bozievich started under 40 percent in the first survey. This is a sure sign of trouble.

Lesley continued to close the gap over time – leading to the eventual result that was so close it required a recount.

QUESTION
If the election for county commissioner were held today, would you vote for Jay Bozievich or Dawn Lesley [ROTATE]?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of West Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

SOURCE OF ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

Net Favorables Trend: East Lane 2014 Co. Comm. Race

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As opposed to the West Lane race, the East Lane race saw less movement during the final few weeks. However, one week out, the two candidates were closer.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
1. Faye Stewart
2. Kevin Matthews

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of East Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

 

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
1. Faye Stewart
2. Kevin Matthews

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of East Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

The net favorable percentage equal the total favorable percentage minus the total unfavorable percentage

Net Favorables Trend: West Lane 2014 Co. Comm. Race

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Lesley increased her net favorable advantage during the final few weeks. It is important to note that Bozievich still had a positive net favorable rating one week before the election.

QUESTION
Now, I am going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
1. Jay Bozievich
2. Dawn Lesley

METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of West Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

The net favorable percentage equal the total favorable percentage minus the total unfavorable percentage

 

County Commissioner Contest Undervote by Region

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The highest under votes were in the East Lane district.

Under votes are generally negatively correlated with the amount of information voters have.

A typical under vote for this type of election in Oregon is not more than ten percent. Given the election was a low turnout primary one would expect a lower under vote, perhaps seven or eight percent.

Districts are ordered by district number, thus West Lane = #1, Springfield = #2, and East Lane = #5.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

WEST LANE REGIONS
WL-Coast: Every precinct from Mapleton west.
WL-Central: The central portion of the district.
WL-Santa Clara: All City of Eugene and Santa Clara region precincts.

SPRINGFIELD REGIONS
SP-West Springfield: Springfield Wards 1 and 2
SP-Central Springfield: Springfield Wards 3 and 4
SP-East Springfield: Springfield Wards 5 and 6
SP-Valley: Any non-Springfield precincts in the district.

EAST LANE REGIONS
EL-South Lane: Rural areas of the district surrounding Cottage Grove and west.
EL-East Lane: Rural areas including Coburg, Blue River, and Oakridge areas.
EL-Eugene: All City of Eugene precincts

Net Partisan Swing 2014 Lane Co. Comm. Contests

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There was a clear gap in performance between the three incumbent county commissioners in the recent primary. The net swing adjusts the winning percentage by the partisan registration in the district.

Since Leiken lacked a strong opponent his margin is expected. This is not the largest observed locally. Pat Farr had a 45 point net swing against Rob Handy in 2012.

It is worth pointing out that the 20-point swing in the Stewart context would have won in a countywide contest where he would have needed only a 16-point swing.

Bozievich’s  net swing dropped from 16 percent in November 2010 to 3 percent this past May. This is a huge drop. It appears to echo the poor Bozievich polling reported earlier in this blog.

These swings can be compared with those in other areas: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=9525.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

METHODOLOGY: The net swing equals the difference between the winner and the second place candidate percentages minus the difference between the Republican and Democratic partisan percentages. This is a standard way to compute differences since both Leiken and Stewart had a single dominant opponent. For example, Bozievich tied Lesley and Democrats had a three percentage registration edge over Republicans.

Leiken Co. Comm. Vote by Region

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Leiken did well in all regions. West Springfield was worst. Generally, his percentage improved going east. Leiken received 62 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
West Springfield: Springfield Wards 1 and 2
Central Springfield: Springfield Wards 3 and 4
East Springfield: Springfield Wards 5 and 6
Valley: Any non-Springfield precincts in the district.

East Lane Co. Comm. District Vote by Region

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The Eugene region is the new part of the district and it shows. Stewart did not do nearly as well in that portion of the district. Had it not been added he would have cruised to victory. Stewart received 50 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
South Lane: Rural areas of the district surrounding Cottage Grove and west.
East Lane: Rural areas including Coburg, Blue River, and Oakridge areas.
Eugene: All City of Eugene precincts

West Lane Co. Comm. District Vote By Region

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Bozievich did won in the Central region of the district. Lesley won on the Coast and in Santa Clara. Bozievich received 50 percent of the vote district wide.

SOURCE OF DATA: Lane County Elections

REGIONS
Coast: Every precinct from Mapleton west.
Central: The central portion of the district.
Santa Clara: All City of Eugene and Santa Clara region precincts.