Current Eugene Mayoral Fundraising

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Here is a fundraising update on the mayoral campaign.

Clark went a long way toward closing the fundraising gap last wee. Counting Clark’s in-kinds and Vinis’ loans then Clark is actually ahead in total contributions. Clark is also closing the gap on cash spent though Vinis still has significantly more cash on hand. As a reminder, Vinis spent a large amount in 2015.

These are based on ORESTAR summary reports as of 10:15 am May 2, 2016.

Matching Up Democratic Presidential and Secretary of State Candidates

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Each of the three Secretary of State candidates has staked out territory. Brad Avakian is running to the left so it’s only natural he’s closest to Sanders in people’s minds. Val Hoyle is the only woman running, so, again, it’s only natural she is closest to Clinton. Richard Devlin is seen as the same type of candidate as Clinton and Hoyle.

QUESTION: If the Democratic Presidential Primary were held today, would you vote for: Hilary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

QUESTION: If the Democratic Oregon Secretary of State Primary were held today, would you vote for: Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SAMPLE METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely 2016 Oregon Democratic Primary voters were conducted April 25-27, 2016. Quotas were established for gender, age, and region. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%.

STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: Correspondence Analysis can be seen as a visual version of a crosstabulation. It represents in distance the similarity between responses from two questions. Responses along the same angle tend to be similar. The closer to the center the closer to the center of the electorate.

Willamette Rezoning

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Here is some old polling on the South Willamette rezoning. Note the substantial increase in “Don’t know” during the three months.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the South Willamette Rezoning proposed by city staff?
IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted on each of December 2-3, 2015 and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Major Eugene Candidate Fundraising Update

With apologies to the other candidates, the big races in Eugene, Eugene Mayor and North Eugene County Commissioner, are getting down to business with only two major candidates in each. For mayor it’s Mike Clark and Lucy Vinis. For commissioner it’s Pat Farr and Tony McCown. This blog with look at the money situation.

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Coincidentally, Farr and Vinis have raised nearly equal amounts, less than 1% separates them. Clark and McCown are far behind.

But, this isn’t the entire story.

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Both Farr and Clark have benefited from significant in-kind expenditures. Nearly half of Clarks contributions have come through this route. Most of these are for his campaign headquarters.

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The cash spent tells an interesting tale. Clark, Farr, and McCown have all spent roughly the same amount of money to date. Vinis, on the other hand, has spent more than the other three combined.

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The current cash balance shows who’s ready for the final election sprint. Farr has more cash on hand than the other three candidates combined (in another coincidence he has about $19 more remaining as Vinis has spent). Clark has about two-thirds Vinis. McCown has spent nearly all his cash.

On last item, Clark’s fundraising has caught fire the last week. He has raised about 37% of his total cash raised during the past week.

Disclaimer: The Lindholm Company, LLC, is consulting for and has in-kinded polling to the Farr campaign.

Eugene Homeless Code Enforcement Approval

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Eugeneans attitudes on homeless code enforcement has stayed about the same.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene relaxing code enforcement on homeless camping?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted on each of December 2-3, 2015 and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Spending of Eugene’s Parks Money

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Although the Register Guard and a number of activists have argued this question, the nearly one-third undecided indicates this issue hasn’t reached out among the wider Eugene electorate.

N.B. This question was asked before the Register Guard editorial.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of how the City of Eugene is spending the parks bond money?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene General Election voters were conducted February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

LTD Board Job Approval Trend

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The LTD Board’s rating took a sharp upturn earlier this year after being steady for a long time. The “Don’t Knows” increased at the same time.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane Transit District Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair,poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%.

The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

EWEB Board Job Approval Trend

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The EWEB Board’s rating looks like it is returning to its long-term level after a detour December 2015.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Eugene Water and Electric Board of Directors is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

Eugene City Council Job Approval Trend

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Although there was a significant improvement the middle of last year, Eugeneans opinion of their city council has returned to its common low level.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job e Eugene City Council is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.

Latest Mayor Piercy Job Approval

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Mayor Piercy’s job approval took an uptick early this year. Long-term, it’s been hovering around 50% for years – reflected how divided Eugene is.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Eugene Mayor Kitty Piercy is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?
METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 1-2, 2015, and February 22-23, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median is 7%. The total might not equal 100% due to rounding.