Measure 88 (Driver Card) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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This measure was consistently far behind the whole time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 87 (Judicial Employment) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Though it started reasonably close, this good government measure gained significant steam over time.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 87: Amends Constitution: Permits employment of state judges by National Guard (military service) and state public universities (teaching), would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Measure 86 (College Fund) Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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The undecided were very high just before ballots went out. They broke mostly, but not completely, for the opposition.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 86: Amends Constitution: Requires creation of fund for Oregonians pursuing post-secondary education, authorizes state indebtedness to finance fund, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Gubernatorial Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Richardson gained strongly in the final days, but he was just too far behind. Kitzhaber maintained a lead throughout.

The first polling was after the Cylvia Hayes scandals broke, but before the ballots went out.

QUESTION: If the election  for Oregon Governor were held today, would you vote for Dennis Richardson, Republican and Independent Parties, Chris Henry, Progressive Party, Aaron Auer, Constitution Party, John Kitzhaber, Democrat and Working Families Parties, Paul Grad, Libertarian Party, and Jason Levin, Pacific Green Party? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Senatorial Contest Tracking and Election Day Final

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Merkley maintained a strong lead and won the undecided in the final days.

QUESTION: If the election for United States Senator were held today, would you vote for Mike Montchalin, Libertarian Party, Jeff Merkley, Democrat, Independent, Working Families, and Progressive Parties, Christina Jean Lugo, Pacific Green Party, James E. Leuenberger, Constitution Party, and Monica Wehby, Republican Party?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

SOURCE OF ELECTION RETURNS: Oregon Secretary of State. Final Unofficial Results (Nov. 7, 2014 8pm).

Polling Here Correct on Nine out of Nine Oregon Statewide Races!

Our polling did pretty well this cycle!

There have been some stories about how polling missed badly this election. The Oregonian newspaper examined how pollsters did on the Oregon races:(http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/11/how_did_pollsters_do_predictin.html#incart_maj-story-1).

Readers who’ve followed this blog you would have known the winners for every statewide race in Oregon the weekend before the election. All the final data was posted last Saturday and Sunday.

Adding in our score to the Oregonian‘s list of pollsters, not aggregators, we get:
Lindholm Research, LLC 9-0 – 100%
NYT/CBS 2-0 – 100%
DHM/OPB/Fox-12 6-1 – 86%
ELWAY/Oregonian/KGW 3-1 – 75%
SURVEYUSA/KATU 3-1 – 75%

Now, every pollster got the Senator and Governor right. It was a pretty easy call – no inexperienced candidate, ala Monica Wehby, has won an Oregon senate seat since 1944 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8849) and no conservative, ala Dennis Richardson, has been elected statewide since 1948 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3137).

So let’s get serious and concentrate just on the tougher polling issues. Counting only the measure polling in the ranking the scores are:
Lindholm Research, LLC 7-0 – 100%
DHM/OPB/Fox-12 4-1 – 80%
ELWAY/Oregonian/KGW 1-1 – 50%
SURVEYUSA/KATU 1-1 – 50%
NYT/CBS 0-0 – 0%

Of course, current success does not imply future success. But, it was a good night!

NOTE: These scores are based on contests that AP has called. At this point, all statewide contests have been called.

Oregonians Elect Experienced Senators

So, Monica Wehby lost her bid for the U. S. Senate. From the very beginning, Monica Wehby had one big problem: she had no experience. She’s not the first Republican nominee to suffer this problem: see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3137 and http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8849.

Oregonians really do expect their elected officials to have experience. The last U. S. Senator elected without having held prior office was Wayne Morse in 1944. However, Morse was the University of Oregon’s Law School Dean and had gained statewide visibility a dozen years earlier leading the defeat of the Zorn-McPherson Bill which would have dissolved the University of Oregon. Even Maurine Neuberger, who succeeded her husband Richard Neuberger, had previously been a state Representative.

Oregon Doesn’t Elect Socially Conservative Governors

So, Dennis Richardson lost. That should be no surprise to readers of this blog (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=3137).

As pointed out a couple years ago, no conservative has won election to Oregon statewide office since 1948. Oregon hasn’t elected a pro-life candidate as Governor since the issue became relevant after Roe v. Wade. This observation does not hold for Senators, but neither were Mark Hatfield nor Gordon Smith among the more conservative members of the U. S. Senate.

Pro-life Republican nominees have lost every time they were nominated. Denny Smith lost in 1994, Bill Sizemore in 1998, Kevin Mannix in 2002, and, now, Dennis Richardson in 2014.

Not only it is tough in generals, it’s also tough in primaries. Republican primary voters have given a majority to pro-choice candidates in recent years. Sizemore and Richardson won effectively unopposed primaries. Mannix won with only a plurality. His two more moderate opponents, had their votes been combined, commanded a landslide majority. Denny Smith was the only one to win outright in the primary and this proves the rule with a vengeance. Smith had served a decade-long highly successful congressional career: he had the resume. His opponent was Craig Berkman whose future we now know. In 1994, though, Berkman had held no offices other Republican party chief. Despite his massive advantage, Denny Smith won the race primarily by solidly winning his old congressional district (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1780). They essentially drew in the rest of the state.

As Smith demonstrated in 1994, quality is important to Oregon voters. Richardson, seemingly reading this blog’s post made just before Dorchester 2013 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=8849), argued that he has greater experience than other nominees. Unfortunately, he lacks one other characteristic.

Little wonder Dennis Richardson began his campaign as an avowedly pro life candidate. By the end of the campaign he was claiming he was really a moderate.

The Difference in 100 Years: Prohibition and Legalized Marijuana

It seems Oregonians have always been willing to experiment. One hundred years ago Monday, Oregonians passed a state prohibition constitutional amendment (see http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=11038). It was part of a national movement. Oregon was one of four states that day to pass it that particular day. The federal constitutional amendment was added a few years later in 1920. However, in a complete reversal, the national amendment was resoundingly repealed in 1933.

Tuesday, Oregonians went in the opposite direction. They legalized marijuana. Advocates of legalization have long argued that marijuana laws were a kind of prohibition – not a favorable comparison. Similar to what happened with prohibition, marijuana legalization was expanded in other parts of the country the same day as Oregon’s vote.

Both were approved with approximately the same level of support. Statewide, prohibition was passed with 58 percent and marijuana was legalized with, it appears now, about 55 percent. The question now is how well will this particular experiment go.

Oregon Voted for Prohibition 100 Years Ago Today

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Key: Yes percentage in 10 percent increments from 0-10 at far left through 90-100 at far right. Darker indicates a higher yes percentage.

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Prohibition was passed and added to the Oregon Constitution in 1914 after falling short previously. The local option had passed and been added to Oregon’s laws a few years earlier. Prohibition was added to the United States Constitution in 1920 and repealed in 1933.

Above is a map of the voting percentages for yes by county. The key is below.

As one can see, Multnomah County was the least supportive among Oregon’s counties. This fit with the national pattern. Prohibition typically did better in rural areas and worse in urban areas.

MORE ABOUT THE 1914 ELECTION COMING

MEASURE DETAILS:

MEASURE 17: Prohibition Constitutional Amendment

REFERRED BY INITIATIVE
PASSED

PROHIBITION CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT. Its purpose is to prohibit after January first, 1916, the manufacture and sale of intoxicating liquors within the State of Oregon, except upon prescription of a physician, or for scientific, sacramental or mechanical purposes.