Measure 101 Key Demographics

As should be no surprise to anyone, the most important demographic split is by party. Democrats are clearly more supportive.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
CHAID was used to create the tree diagram.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.

Measure 101 Tracking Top Lines

Measure 101 is receiving support from slightly more than half of likely voters. Considering it is a tax measure, undecided voters are likely to be no voters on net. The high “Don’t Know,” more than a quarter of respondents, shows that the general public has very little information about this measure.
In comparison to the January 2010 election and measures 66 and 67 at this time in 2009 (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=1646), Measure 101 is doing better among voters, but has a larger “Don’t Know.”
The bottom line is that voters haven’t settled on this measure and, given these data, it shouldn’t surprise anyone too much if either “Yes” or “No” won in the end.
QUESTION: If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure 101: Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than 1.5 percent as a result of these assessments.
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?
METHODOLOGY: 400 live telephone interviews of likely State of Oregon January Special Election voters statewide were conducted December 11-13, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Sampling was based on voter lists and used quotas to create a representative sample.
STATEMENT OF INTEREST: No company associated with this blog is working for either campaign. The Lindholm Company, LLC, owns all results.

2016 Primary Vote Switching in North Eugene

Often Eugene elections are seen as contests between Pro-Business and Progressive candidates. This implies the two sides can be analyzed as if they were two political parties.

Estimates were independently prepared based on polling and precinct data. Both approaches indicate that 30 percent of Lucy Vinis’ (Progressive) vote in the North Eugene County Commissioner District had just voted for Pat Farr (Pro-Business).

This direction of vote switching is even more dramatic when one considers that the North Eugene district is more pro-business than the city as a whole. Mike Clark should have been running to the left, not right, of Pat Farr.

The level of vote switching observed here provides at least a partial explanation of the Vinis landslide.

SOURCES OF DATA: Lane County Elections for precinct returns; Lindholm Research for Farr campaign tracking polls.

Lane Board of Commissioners Job Performance

The job performance rating of the Lane Board of Commissioners has steadily risen in Eugene during 2017 and is now at its highest point in years.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job the Lane County Board of Commissioners is doing: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted each of February 16-18, 2015, June 1-2, 2015, September 21-22, 2015, December 2-3, 2015, February 22-23, 2016, September 13-15, 2016, November 29-December 1, 2016, April 10-11, 2017, and September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.

Comparison of Clark 2016 Results and Piercy 2012 Opponents’ Results by Ward

Mike Clark received the same percentage citywide in May 2016 as Kitty Piercy’s two challengers did in May 2012. This disguises some significant variations.

First, Clark did much better in North Eugene (wards 4 and 5) and the South Hills (Ward 2). On the other hand, Clark did worse in West Eugene (wards 6, 7 and 8). That performance gap was worst in Ward 6 (Greg Evans’ ward and Pat Farr’s former ward).

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Eugene Independent Performance Auditor Maintains Solid Support

The elected auditor is supported by a wide margin. However, voter opinions on non-money measures typically are less firm than on money measures. The dramatic movement of the housekeeping charter amendment at the recently completed election is proof of that (http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=14379). At 60% it’s level of support is not quite enough to be guaranteed victory against a concerted opposition campaign. Supporters would like to have around 70%.

QUESTION: Would you vote yes or no on: Shall the City of Eugene Charter be amended to establish office of elected City Auditor to independently audit city operations and activities?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2018 General Election voters conducted September 11-12, 2017. Margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus 7%.

Relationship Between Voting on Measures 20-274 and 20-275 by Ward

 

This analysis presupposes a linear relationship between the votes for 20-274 and 20-275. What is interesting is that the three southern wards are above the line, indicating disproportionate support for the streets bond measure, and the five northern and western wards are below the line, indicating disproportionate opposition for that same measure.

Once again, voting returns show the gap between the three South Eugene wards, where Mayor Vinis and former Mayor Piercy ran best, and the rest of Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Overall Vote Compared – 2012 and 2016 Eugene Mayoral Elections

This graphic compares the vote percentages for mayor in 2012 and 2016. It assigns the percentages into three categories. The assumptions are 1. that the minor candidates in 2016 were winning votes from the left and 2. that the two Piercy challengers in 2012 were from the right.

This leaves us with the interesting result that Clark received the same percentage as Piercy’s two challengers in 2012 – thus replicating a minimum in support for a pro-business agenda.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Yes Percentage Eugene Measure 20-275 (Streets Measure) by Ward

Though the streets measure won by a solid margin, it only won seven of eight wards. It actually lost Ward 6 (Bethel-Danebo/Northwest Eugene) by landslide proportions.

Paralleling the charter revision, the highest support came from the three southern wards (1, 2, and 3). Next came the two northern wards (4 and 5). The western wards had the least support (6, 7, and 8).

This pattern parallels other money measures.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vinis Favorables Rating Trend

First, it’s clear that those who know who Eugene Mayor Lucy Vinis is generally like her. She’s had no bad press.

Second, as previous posts have indicated that’s faint praise because so few know her.

QUESTION: Now, I am going to read the names of some people and organizations. Please tell me whether you have heard of each. IF HEARD OF … Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lucy Vinis IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE: Is that strongly or somewhat?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely General Election voters were conducted September 11-12, 2017. The margin of error at the sample median for each is 7%.