Comparing Farr and Clark Vote Percentages in North Eugene

image008

This graphic compares the percentages in City of Eugene precincts that are in the North Eugene County Commissioner district.

Farr’s percentage equals the Clark percentage plus the other candidates’ percentages plus more than a tenth of Vinis’ percentage. Farr beat Clark by double digits in every precinct where both were on the ballot.

Clark’s 53% in these prime precincts was also clearly not enough. Earlier posts showed that he made few if any inroads into the Piercy coalition. This graphic shows he significantly underperformed in among the Torrey coalition.

This could actually be worse than it seems. Since Vinis had to win over south Eugene voters while Farr’s opponent, Tony McCown, could create a north-Eugene-specific message, one would expect Clark to receive a higher, not a lower, percentage of the voters than Farr. This pattern has been borne our over time, such as in 2000 and 2008.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Disclaimer: Lindholm Company provided in-kind and at-cost materials for the Farr campaign.

Distribution of Mayoral Vote Pcts. by Precinct

image004

This graphic ranks Lucy Vinis’ net percentage over Mike Clark in the 2016 Mayoral Primary for each of Eugene’s 31 precincts. It is a good way of presenting the geographic concentration of voting.

Several things stand out. First, this confirms the result in the last post. Vinis, like Piercy, won by winning big in a relatively small part of the town. Vinis won a number of precincts by nearly 60% while Clark only won one by more than 30%. Second, rather than a nearly continuous line there is clustering and a break. Ten precincts gave Vinis a margin of 50% or better. On the other hand, less than half a dozen precincts gave her a win by between 0% and 30%. Finally, there is little clustering in the Clark precincts. They form a nice continuous line.

It is worth noting that this overstates the margin of Vinis’ win. The precincts Clark won tend to be larger.

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Methodology: The margin equals the Vinis percentage minus the Clark percentage.

Eugene Mayoral Vote Percentages by Ward

image002

This post looks at the geographic distribution of the Clark and Vinis votes for Mayor of Eugene in the 2016 Primary.

To a large extent, both candidates won where they were expected to win. Vinis won in the south Eugene wards (1, 2, and 3; Brown, Taylor, and Zelenka, respectively) and Clark won in the north and west Eugene wards (4, 5, and 6; Poling, Clark, and Evans, respectively).

The two remaining west Eugene wards were narrowly won by Vinis: neither candidate received a majority. Ward 8 (Pryor) continues to be the swing ward that any pro-business candidate has to win. Clark did not. Ward 7 (Syrett) is now clearly competitive. This has been appearing for some time. It’s interesting that the Chamber of Commerce chose not to contest this ward.

However, all this is not enough to explain Vinis’ wide margin. She did that by winning south Eugene by very wide margins and by keeping Clark’s vote under 60% in all three of his key wards..

Source of data: Lane County Elections

Map of Eugene Wards: http://www.eugene-or.gov/2636/Large-Ward-Map

Oregon Republican Governor Primary Trend

image010

As one would expect the tracking shows Alley with a slight lead in April before the campaigns hit full gear and rapidly losing ground to Pierce during May.

QUESTION: If the Republican Oregon Governor Primary were held today, would you vote for: Bruce Cuff, Bob Niemeyer, Bob Forthan, Bud Pierce, or Allen Alley? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: These results are based on three surveys composed of live telephone interviews of likely Oregon Democratic Primary voters. A survey of 200 was conducted April 5-6, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for this survey is 7%. Two surveys of 400 were conducted April 25-26 and May 9-10, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for these surveys is 5%.

Recent Eugene Area Net Partisan Swing Margins

image002

This chart goes over the swing margins in some recent contests. The idea is that not every district is created equal. In particular, it’s pretty easy for a Democrat to build up a big margin in Eugene. Similarly, it’s relatively easier for a Republican to win in rural Lane County than in Eugene.

Farr’s margins, despite facing an incumbent in 2012 and an opponent with a long resume in 2016, were the largest of the group.

The standard swing in the state legislature or in other areas of the state is under 10%.

Source: Lane County Elections.

Methodology: Based on vote percentages at election and the corresponding voter registration figures. Equals the net margin ahead of principal progressive opponent plus the Democratic minus Republican registration margin. Green indicates a win and red indicates a loss.

Recent Co. Comm. Vote Percentages

image006

Pat Farr in 2016 received the highest vote for county commissioner in the past five years.

Source: Lane County Elections

Note that Pete Sorenson was unopposed in 2016 so was not included.

Eugene Mayoral Race Key Demographics

 

 

 

 

image014

The primary determinants of support in the Eugene Mayoral election polling were first party and second the date of the poll. Clark did better among Republicans and Others and Vinis did best among Democrats. Clark steadily consolidated the Republicans as Vinis did the Democrats.

QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey was plus or minus 7%.These were then pooled into a single large sample of 800.

Eugene Mayoral Race Predictive Tracking Results

image002

This graphic takes the polling data and models the likely vote percentage for the two candidates. It’s typical in local races for voters to be unfamiliar with the candidates until late in the process. This method adjusts for that lack of knowledge and creates a prediction. In practice, the method is better at predicting the front runner percentage than all the others.

First, the last poll, two weeks before the election, had Vinis winning 54% and she got 53%. That implies Vinis had the race sewed up relatively early.

Next, as noted in the last post, Vinis gained in early to mid April. From that point on her lead was solid.

Finally, Clark’s paid media push at the end appears to have had no significant impact.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

Eugene Mayoral Election Polling Trend

image002

Okay, now that we know the magnitude of Clark’s landslide loss, we need to examine how his level of support evolved during the campaign itself.

Mike Clark started with a solid lead based on his name ID advantage. As one would expect, Lucy Vinis closed the gap. Vinis broke through in early mid April and maintained a solid lead throughout. Clark’s ad blitz at the end of the campaign was not enough to gain, it might even have caused him to lose ground. Vinis’ break through appears to coincide with the first time both candidates’ messages were presented.

POLLING QUESTION: If the Eugene mayoral election were held today, would you vote for: Mike Clark, Bob Cassidy, Stefan Strek, Lucy Vinis, or Scott Landfield [ROTATE NAMES]? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way would you lean?
NOTE: Landfield not included on Feb. 8-9 survey because he had not yet announced his candidacy.

POLLING METHODOLOGY: Data for surveys: 200 live telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely 2016 Primary voters were conducted on each of February 8-9, April 4-5, April 18-19, and May 2-3, 2016. The margin of error for each survey was plus or minus 7%.

ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

Eugene Mayoral Contest Result in Historical Perspective, 1996-2016

image002

This chart includes the last five significant mayoral contests. These span the past 20 years. Several things are immediately clear.

First, after 1996 and before 2016 the Business and Progressive sides were fairly evenly matched.

Second, at each end of the time series, however, there were landslides. Torrey beat Weaver and Vinis beat Clark. Both wins were by more than 15 points. Torrey’s win was slightly bigger. The two landslides, though, are not exactly comparable. Torrey vs. Weaver was head to head. Clark vs. Vinis included three minor candidates.

Finally, while Vinis’ percentage was only slightly above the norm for Progressive candidates, Clark’s percentage was far below that for Business candidates.

Two different conclusions are reasonable: 1. Eugene has become far more progressive since 2008. The minor candidates in 2016 were all progressive and they could have taken votes meant for Vinis. 2. For some reason, the Clark campaign significantly underperformed.

At this point the data supports conclusion #2. There are many reasons for this. Among these are that Pat Farr had little problem winning the North Eugene County Commissioner seat against a strong opponent. His numbers were far above Bobby Green’s in 2008 while Mike Clark’s were far below Jim Torrey’s in 2008. The polling over the past decade has been pretty consistent and shows no big changes in the Eugene electorate. Finally, polling for the mayoral race closely matched the actual result. This will be covered in the next post.

METHODOLOGY: The totals do not always equal 100% due to minor candidates. The mayoral contests included were: 1996 Gen.: Jim Torrey (Business) vs. Jim Weaver (Progressive). 2004 Prim.: Nancy Nathanson (Business) vs. Kitty Piercy (Progressive). There were some minor candidates. 2008 Prim.: Jim Torrey (Business) vs. Kitty Piercy (Progressive). There were some minor candidates. 2008 Gen.: Jim Torrey (Business) vs. Kitty Piercy (Progressive). 2016 Prim.: Mike Clark (Business) vs. Lucy Vinis (Progressive). There were some minor candidates. There were no minor candidates running in either of the general elections considered due to Eugene City Charter requirements.

SOURCE: Lane County elections.