Confidence in Attorney General Investigation

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In general, Oregonians feel confident about the Attorney General’s investigation.

QUESTION: Currently, Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum is investigating Governor Kitzhaber. How much confidence do you have in the results of her investigation: a lot, some, not much, none at all?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.

How Closely Are Oregonians Following the Kitzhaber Controversy?

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Not a lot of Oregonians are following the controversy very closely, but about two thirds are following it reasonably closely.

QUESTION: How closely are you following the controversy surrounding Governor Kitzhaber: very closely, somewhat closely, not very closely, or not at all closely?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.

Oregonians Favor Kitzhaber Recall by Slight Margin

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The numbers are obviously not good. However, the number favoring recall is not above 50 percent. Since the polling was conducted as news was breaking it is entirely possible that those favoring recall could already exceed 50 percent.

The interviewing was conducted Monday through Wednesday of this week.

QUESTION: Recall petitions have been filed against Governor Kitzhaber. By law, they cannot begin collecting signatures until July. However, if the election were held today would you vote to recall or to keep Governor Kitzhaber in office? IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 400 likely Oregon gubernatorial general election voters were conducted February 9-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median is 5%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

This poll was conducted entirely at the expense of The Lindholm Company, LLC without outside support.

By the way, we did pretty well polling in 2014: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=11412

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Congressional District

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Though turnout from the five congressional districts do track one another, the 2nd Congressional District, comprised of eastern and southern Oregon and the most rural, jumps out to a short-term lead during the middle week of voting.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Congressional District

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Turnout from Oregon’s five congressional districts generally track one another.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Party

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The turnout for non-major-party voters continuously trails that for major party voters.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Party

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Republican and Democratic daily turnouts closely track one another. The non-major-party voters surge at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to both be more likely to return their ballots and to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ at the end.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Percentage of Total Turnout by Date by Age

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Older voters tend to return their ballots earlier.

Note the falloff of voters 75+ on election day. In polling place states, the turnout rate for voters 75+ is lower than those 65-74.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.

Cumulative Turnout Percentage by Date by Gender

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The lines track each other almost perfectly. There are few gender differences in ballot return date.

SOURCES of RAW DATA: Oregon Secretary of State, L2 of Bellevue Washington.