How Measure 91 (Legalizing Marijuana) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts

http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards

http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

How Measure 92 (GMO Labeling) Fared in Lane County

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The pattern is pretty clear. South Eugene (the county commission district and wards 1, 2, and 3) voted one way and the rest of the county voted another.

SOURCE: Oregon Secretary of State; Lane County Elections.

METHODOLOGY: The graphic covers the Oregon statewide result, the Lane countywide result and the overall results for Eugene, Springfield, and Rural Lane County (the portion of the county that is neither in Eugene nor in Springfield). Next, are the five county commissioner districts. Finally, the overall Eugene result is repeated, for ease of comparison, followed by the city’s eight wards.

REFERENCE
Lane County Commissioner Districts

http://www.lanecounty.org/Departments/BCC/Pages/Districts.aspx

Eugene City Council Wards

http://www.eugene-or.gov/index.aspx?NID=532

Eugene Civic Alliance Extension Meets with Narrow Approval

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The extension is supported by a bare majority –  a modest margin.

The poll was fielded before the latest news came from the Eugene Civic Alliance over the weekend.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the City of Eugene agreed to give Eugene Civic Alliance extra time to buy Civic Stadium?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene General election voters conducted December 2-3, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Oregon House Districts: Partisan Result by Voter Registration Margin

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This graphic presents the middle third of districts in the state. The most Republican third and the most Democratic third are not included.

The trend in previous years has been toward a clear dividing line between the parties. See http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=700 for a summary of 2002-08.This year the line is not so sharp – though the Democrats have moved into new territory with the win in Vicki Berger’s seat.

The battleground is for control of districts of between 0% and 5% Democratic registration advantages. The Republicans would need to be able to contest districts up to 8% to have any chance of taking the chamber. Losing the 0% district in a Republican wave year nationally is an ominous portent of future failures.

CODE: Red: Republican 2012-14; Blue: Democratic 2012-14; Purple: Change from Republican to Democratic in 2014 election.

SOURCES Voter Registration: Oregon Secretary of State September 2014 Registration Report. Party Control of District: Oregon Secretary of State

Registration margin = Democratic percentage minus Republican percentage.

Oregon Senate Districts: Partisan Control by Voter Registration Margin

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This graphic presents the middle third of districts in the state. The most Republican third and the most Democratic third are not included.

The battleground is for control of districts of between 5% and 10% Democratic registration advantages. The Republicans would need to be able to contest districts up to around 8% to have any chance of taking the chamber. Losing the 7% and 9% districts in a Republican wave year nationally is not the way to start on this.

CODE: Red: Republican 2012-14; Blue: Democratic 2012-14; Purple: Change from Republican to Democratic in 2014 election.

SOURCES Voter Registration: Oregon Secretary of State September 2014 Registration Report. Party Control of District: Oregon Secretary of State/Online Blue Book

Registration margin = Democratic percentage minus Republican percentage.

Tree Analysis of Measure 92 (GMO Labeling) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-148

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

The late movement was clearly among non Republicans. This makes sense if the measure was generally seen as regulation. This trend highlights the effectiveness of the “No” campaign.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 92: Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label “genetically engineered” foods as such; state, citizens may enforce, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

 

Tree Analysis of Measure 91 (Marijuana Legalization) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-147

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

It is interesting that voters who are more religious were more likely to oppose legalized marijuana.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 91: Allows possession, manufacture, sale of marijuana by/to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 90 (Top Two Primary) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-146

The date of the poll, trend, was the primary vote determinant. The party shows up as a secondary variable. This implies new information was the dominant decision variable.

Party impacted the earlier poll, but not the second one nearer the election. This implies that the information counteracted voter predispositions.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 90: Changes general election nomination processes: provides for single primary ballot listing candidates; top two advance, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

Tree Analysis of Measure 89 (Oregon ERA) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-145

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 89: Amends Constitution: State/political subdivision shall not deny or abridge equality of rights on account of sex, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.

 

Tree Analysis of Measure 88 (Driver Card) Vote Demographics

ORGEN1410MERGE-CHAID 11-1-144

Party was the primary vote determinant. The date of the poll shows up as a secondary variable. This implies some voters depended on new information generated by the campaigns. Their take on this new information was likely dependent on their political perspective.

QUESTION: Now, I would like to talk to you about some measures that will be on the November ballot. If the election were held today on Measure 88: Provides Oregon resident “driver card” without requiring proof of legal presence in the United States, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY:

SURVEYS: 400 live telephone interviews were conducted of likely State of Oregon voters on October 13-16 and again on October 27-30 2014. Both landlines and cell phones were included. Likelihood was determined by a model overlaid on the voter file. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus five percent.

TREE ANALYSIS: Standard CHAID was applied to a pooled data set constructed from the above two surveys.The dependent variable in each case is the specific ballot choice. Independent variables were the same in all analyses. These include: Poll Date, Gender, Age, Party, Congressional District, Vote Frequency, Homeownership, Union Membership, Marital Status, Religious Importance, Religious Attendance, Education, and Income.