Vehicle Registration Fee Yes % by Eugene Ward

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As with the Lane County Commission districts, the yes % pattern generally followed the typical lines. One interesting grouping, however, stands out. The south Eugene wards (1, 2, and 3) were most supportive. The north Eugene wards (4 and 5) were next most supportive. The west Eugene wards (6, 7, and 8) were least supportive. Ward 7 appears to be transitioning from being the old central Eugene ward into being one of the west Eugene wards. This, if it becomes a trend and continues, could make the 2016 Ward 7 city council contest very interesting since councilor Syrett has been one of Mayor Piercy’s strongest allies on the council.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vehicle Registration Fee Yes % by Commissioner District

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The support for the vehicle registration fee generally followed the expected pattern. South Eugene was most supportive, just as it was for the 2013 Jail Levy. North Eugene came next. Interestingly, however, is that East Lane’s Yes % exceeded by Springfield and West Lane. This was, in part, driven by the comparatively higher Yes % in southwest Eugene.

Source of data: Lane County Elections.

Vehicle Registration Fee Trend and Polling Error Margins

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This post looks at the predicted yes percentage. It was always close to the final margin. This means the campaigns, both privately run and county-run, provided little significant information to voters.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

Vehicle Registration Fee Trend with Election Results

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The measure’s support hovered around the mid 30s since the Voter’s Pamphlet was sent. The opposition was never much below 60%. The measure never had a chance.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

ELECTION RESULTS: Lane County Elections, Final Unofficial.

The High Accuracy Continues

After getting every statewide partisan candidate and statewide measure contest right in last November’s General Election, the company’s extended that streak.

The company got Lane County’s Vehicle Registration Fee result right last night. The company’s polling was consistently below 40 percent and the final result, as of this writing, looks to be around 34 percent – within the margin of error of every single one of our polls.

This blog will post more results about the election after Lane County Elections produces the Final Unofficial results later this week.

Big Gap Among Democrats by Region on Vehicle Registration Fee

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The Lane County vehicle registration fee is losing among everyone except South Eugene Democrats.

This is more evidence that south Eugene’s politics differ sharply from the rest of the county.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

CHAID: The above four surveys were combined into a single dataset. The tree was constructed using CHAID with the dependent variables being: survey date, gender, age, political party, and county commission district.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Gaining

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The measure continues to gain. This is probably due to the political campaign in favor and the county’s information campaign. There has been no organized opposition. The measure seems on track to be around 40 percent.

These numbers are from one week ago.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, April 27-28, and May 10-11, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Lane Vehicle Registration Fee Latest Tracking

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The “yes” percentage jumped up since the beginning of the month and the “no” has continued its steady decline.

It’s not time for supporters to get too excited yet. Everything is consistent with the typical mid 30s support for new measures. However, things are going in the right direction.

Several observations: First, both the county’s and the political campaign have now kicked off. They almost certainly had some effect. Next, we’re getting further from the Kitzhaber resignation. That probably also had an effect. Finally, the “no” side is still at 60%. It still needs to drop a long way before the measure has any chance to pass.

QUESTION: Lane County plans to place this measure on the May ballot:
To ensure road safety by modestly increasing vehicle registration fee.  Shall streets, roads, and bridges be kept safe and well maintained through a $35/year increase in the vehicle registration fee? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no?
IF YES/NO: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: Live telephone interviews of 200 likely Lane County May Special Election voters were conducted each of March 9-10, 2015, April 1-2, and April 27-28, 2015. The margin of error at the sample median for each survey is 7%. Registered voters were called. Quotas were established based on gender, age, party, and region. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Comparing Piercy’s and Torrey’s Ratings

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This post compares two Eugene mayors, Kitty Piercy this past February, and Jim Torrey in May of 2003, at about the same time before they left office. Piercy has announced she’s leaving office in January 2017 and Torrey left office in January 2005.

Several things jump out. First, Torrey’s positive job performance (total of excellent and good) was more than ten points higher than Piercy’s is now. In general, Torrey’s ratings were higher than Piercy’s. Second, Piercy is significantly more polarizing among the electorate with 50% rating her either excellent or poor compared to half that, 25%, rating Torrey that way. Third, the “Don’t Know” percentages are about the same and are very low. Virtually everyone has an opinion about the mayor, then and now.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job ________ is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?
Jim Torrey
Kitty Piercy

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of May 7-8, 2003 for Mayor Torrey and Feb. 16-18, 2015 for Mayor Piercy. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.

Piercy Job Performance Ratings Past Two Years

 

 

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Mayor Piercy has been in net negative territory since January 2013.

QUESTION: How would you rate the job Kitty Piercy is doing as Mayor: excellent, good, fair, poor?

METHODOLOGY: 200 telephone interviews of City of Eugene likely general election voters were conducted the nights of Jan. 23-24, June 10-11, Sep. 23-24, and Dec. 4-5, 2013, Feb. 11-14, May 27-28, Sep. 15-16, and Dec. 2-3, 2014 and Feb. 16-18, 2015.. The margin of error at the median is 7% for each of these surveys.