West Lane Co. Comm. May 2014 Predictive Tracking Results

image004

This adjusted ballot percentages show that this race was always going to be close.

See http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10672 for the original percentages.

QUESTION
If the election for county commissioner were held today, would you vote for Jay Bozievich or Dawn Lesley [ROTATE]?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

SURVEY METHODOLOGY
200 live telephone interviews of West Lane County Commission District likely 2014 Primary voters were conducted each of April 29-May 1 and May 12-14, 2014. The margin of error of the survey at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent for each survey.

SOURCE OF ELECTION DATA: Lane County Elections.

ADJUSTED BALLOT CALCULATION METHODOLOGY: The adjusted ballot standing is calculated by assigning the undecided percentage using a standard methodology. The undecided percentage was assigned with one third to the incumbent and the remaining two thirds divided proportionately among the challenger or challengers.

Back to the May Election

The past few weeks we’ve been looking at Paid Sick Leave. This week we’re going to get back to analyses of May’s county commissioner contests.

County Bar of City Employment Ordinances Solidly Disapproved

image008

Lane County’s ordinance banning employment laws in the county’s cities is solidly disapproved.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Lane County barring any city within Lane County from passing local laws that mandate any employment conditions, including wages and benefits?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Solid Approval of County Non-Eugene Paid Sick Leave Exemption of Non-Eugene Businesses

image006

The county’s move to exempt non-Eugene businesses from Eugene’s potential Paid Sick Leave ordinance is solidly approved among Eugeneans.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Lane County exempting all Lane County businesses located outside Eugene city limits from Eugene’s ordinance?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Split on County Government Paid Sick Leave Exemption

image004

Eugeneans are essentially evenly split on whether governments should be exempt. In general, Eugeneans prefer applying the paid sick leave to government than other entities than other controversial components.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Lane County exempting all local governments and their future contractors from the proposed mandate?
IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Possible Charter Amendment Against Eugene Paid Sick Leave Still Opposed

image002

Though support has increased and opposition decreased, a potential charter amendment still faces a significant hurdle.

Any campaign to pass this potential charter amendment would require a very strong and well-funded campaign.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a City of Eugene charter amendment that would prevent the city from requiring businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis?
IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

More Say Eugene Paid Sick Leave Proposal Going Too Fast

image006

Those saying Paid Sick Leave is moving too fast has increased significantly.

QUESTION: Regarding the City of Eugene proposal to require businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis: Do you feel the City of Eugene moving too fast, too slow, or just about right with the proposal?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Eugene Paid Sick Leave Familiarity Increases Significantly

image004

Familiarity is clearly increasing. All the news coverage during the two weeks clearly had an impact.

It’s important to keep in mind that it’s hard to ask familiarity and get an exact answer. The responses to this question are biased upward, but are consistent across surveys.

QUESTION: Regarding the City of Eugene proposal to require businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis: How familiar are you with the proposal: very familiar, somewhat familiar, somewhat unfamiliar, or very unfamiliar?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted July 8-10 and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

Respondents who were unsure were categorized as unfamiliar with the proposal.

Eugene Paid Sick Leave Support Falls Significantly

image002

Support for Paid Sick Leave has fallen significantly during the past two weeks. Opposition continues to increase.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the City of Eugene requiring businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis?
IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted May 28-29, July 8-10, and July 23-24 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The question wording was taken from the City of Eugene website.

This poll question was not paid for by any client.

Charter Amendment Stopping Paid Sick Leave Opposed

image010

Though people might not like the paid sick leave ordinance, they like the idea of a charter amendment even less.

QUESTION: Do you support or oppose a City of Eugene charter amendment that would prevent the city from requiring businesses providing services within the city limits to offer sick time to employees on an annual basis?
IF SUPPORT OR OPPOSE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
IF DON’T KNOW: Which way do you lean?

METHODOLOGY: 200 live telephone interviews of likely City of Eugene 2014 General election voters conducted on July 8-10, 2014. The margin of error at the sample median is plus or minus seven percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.

The paid sick leave ballot question is reported at: http://lindholmcompanyblog.com/?p=10800.